美联储首次降息前后权益资产表现如何？

格隆汇15:21

当地时间9月17日至18日，美联储将召开9月议息会议，最新的利率决议预计将于18日公布。美联储9月降息进入倒计时。

此前7月FOMC会议纪要显示，绝大多数与会者已经表明支持9月降息。8月24日美联储主席鲍威尔在JacksonHole上的发言，更几乎提前“官宣”了美联储9月降息。

当前市场已经100%认为9月美联储将降息，近期更开始博弈9月降息50bp的可能。

回顾历史，美联储大多在美国经济衰退时降息。本次的不同在于，美国当前经济韧性仍强，美联储更多是预防性降息。

对于权益市场，参考90年代以来美联储历次启动降息后的MSCI发达市场和新兴市场指数的走势，预防式降息和衰退式降息的市场表现显著分化。

预防式降息的情况下，降息周期开启整体利好全球经济回暖和风险偏好回升，市场短期均迎来修复。

风险提示

本信息仅为公开资料整理，不涉及研究观点和投资建议

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

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