华创证券：下半年人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会财险COR或同比好转

智通财经网09-20

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2024H1人身险均受益于价值率改善，NBV实现较好增长；财产险受自然灾害加剧有所承压，但部分险企如太保、财险依旧逆势实现COR优化；投资端表现上，受益于低基数，预计叠加高股息策略加持，除人保外均实现总投资收益率上行。展望下半年，人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会，预定利率进一步下调带来价值率持续改善，新单低基数下有望实现增速转正；财产险方面，若下半年无...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2468699475?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/source/image/77206.jpg?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-09-20 14:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","id":"2468699475","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"华创证券：下半年人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会 财险COR或同比好转","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2024H1人身险均受益于价值率改善，NBV实现较好增长；财产险受自然灾害加剧有所承压，但部分险企如太保、财险依旧逆势实现COR优化；投资端表现上，受益于低基数，预计叠加高股息策略加持，除人保外均实现总投资收益率上行。展望下半年，人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会，预定利率进一步下调带来价值率持续改善，新单低基数下有望实现增速转正；财产险方面，若下半年无...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1185084.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华创证券：下半年人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会 财险COR或同比好转</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华创证券：下半年人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会 财险COR或同比好转\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-20 14:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1185084.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2024H1人身险均受益于价值率改善，NBV实现较好增长；财产险受自然灾害加剧有所承压，但部分险企如太保、财险依旧逆势实现COR优化；投资端表现上，受益于低基数，预计叠加高股息策略加持，除人保外均实现总投资收益率上行。展望下半年，人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会，预定利率进一步下调带来价值率持续改善，新单低基数下有望实现增速转正；财产险方面，若下半年无...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1185084.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1084165304.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1185084.html","article_id":"2468699475","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/source/image/77206.jpg?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2468699475","pubTimestamp":1726813844,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"2024H1人身险均受益于价值率改善，NBV实现较好增长；财产险受自然灾害加剧有所承压，但部分险企如太保、财险依旧逆势实现COR优化。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","COR":"CENCORA","BK4588":"碎股","BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","BK4175":"保健护理产品经销商","BK4529":"IDC概念","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"Huachuang Securities: The growth logic of personal insurance NBV in the second half of the year may have opportunities for both volume and price drive, and the COR of property insurance may improve year-on-year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1,"COR":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2024H1人身险均受益于价值率改善，NBV实现较好增长；财产险受自然灾害加剧有所承压，但部分险企如太保、财险依旧逆势实现COR优化；投资端表现上，受益于低基数，预计叠加高股息策略加持，除人保外均实现总投资收益率上行。展望下半年，人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会，预定利率进一步下调带来价值率持续改善，新单低基数下有望实现增速转正；财产险方面，若下半年无极端天气干扰，在去年Q3受台风影响背景下，COR或同比好转；投资端基数进一步减弱。华创证券主要观点如下：投资端驱动，保险业绩回暖2024H1，受益于投资端低基数与权益市场结构性行情，上市险企总投资收益率普遍回暖，人保、财险同比降幅较Q1有所收窄。资产驱动为主催化下，保险板块实现业绩全面回暖，较Q1增速大幅改善。其中，A股上市险企均实现净利润正增长，太保归母净利润同比+37.1%。投资上行，或受益于权益市场结构性行情2024H1净投资收益率均同比下行，预计受长端利率下行影响，再投资收益下滑。但总投资收益率方面，除人保与财险受一季度拖累严重以外，其他上市险企均实现总投资收益上行。配置策略上，2024H1险企增配长久期利率债，主要目的在于缩短久期缺口；权益配置上高股息策略凸显，股票资产中FVOCI占比均有所提升；此外地产敞口持续保持收窄趋势。人身险：以价驱动，新单承压主要受益于新业务价值率改善，上市险企均实现NBV两位数增长。新业务价值率均明显改善，驱动因素包括预定利率下调、报行合一、期限结构优化。续期保费驱动总保费增速保持高景气度，但基数效应叠加报行合一对银保渠道销售端的短期影响下，新单增速承压。产品结构上，由续保推动，总保费口径中(除新华)传统险呈现同比上行趋势。渠道结构上，个险发力明显，银保受报行合一影响新单占比均有所下滑。财产险：COR受灾害影响，增速略低于预期头部险企财险保费保持稳健增长，太保明显缩短与top2差距。整体COR表现上，人保COR上行、但仍保持领先优势，太保、平安下行。太保财实现主要险种全面COR优化，整体来看赔付率逆势实现优化。平安财则主要受益于信用保证险的出清，整体来看主要得益于费用端改善。车险方面，行业与头部增幅均收窄，预计受车均保费影响；COR受自然灾害加剧影响明显，但人保财/太保财仍实现车险COR同比优化，主要来自于费用端改善。投资建议：当前依旧首推产寿基本面稳健、长航转型带来阿尔法效应的中国太保，以及看好龙头中国财险(02328)的长期投资价值。利差损担忧仍存，建议关注成本压力较小、经营策略稳健的中国人寿。若权益市场回暖，建议关注弹性品种新华保险。推荐顺序是：中国太保(601601.SH)、中国财险(02328)、中国人寿(601628.SH)、新华保险(601336.SH)、中国平安(601318.SH)。风险提示：监管变动、长期利率持续下行、改革不及预期、自然灾害加剧、权益市场波动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2468699475"}

华创证券：下半年人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会 财险COR或同比好转

精彩评论

华创证券：下半年人身险NBV增长逻辑或有量价双驱机会财险COR或同比好转