史上“最难测”美联储会议来了！达里奥声援小摩CEO：降息幅度不重要

市场资讯09-18

①达里奥强调，从长远来看，美联储本周的行动最终“不会有什么影响”；　　②根据他的说法，从美国经济的整体情况来看，美联储本周可能会小幅降息，25个基点的幅度是合适的。　　财联社9月18日讯全球投资者正屏息以待史上“最难测”的美联储会议：到底是降息25个基点还是50个基点？不过根据全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人、亿万富翁投资者达里奥（Ray Dalio），“首降”的幅度实际上并没有那么重要。　　...

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Dario supports JPMorgan CEO: The magnitude of interest rate cut is not important","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"US7Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"SPY":1,"JPM":0.7,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"LU":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"①达里奥强调，从长远来看，美联储本周的行动最终“不会有什么影响”；\n　　②根据他的说法，从美国经济的整体情况来看，美联储本周可能会小幅降息，25个基点的幅度是合适的。\n　　财联社9月18日讯全球投资者正屏息以待史上“最难测”的美联储会议：到底是降息25个基点还是50个基点？不过根据全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人、亿万富翁投资者达里奥（Ray Dalio），“首降”的幅度实际上并没有那么重要。\n　　达里奥周三表示，从美国经济的整体情况来看，美联储本周可能会小幅降息，25个基点的幅度是合适的。\n　　“美联储必须保持足够高的利率，让债权人相信他们将获得实际回报，同时又不能让利率过高，以至于债务人出现问题。”\n　　“关于降息25个基点还是50个基点，如果从全局来看，降息25个基点是正确的。但如果你看看抵押贷款的情况，那里的情况更糟，影响的人更多，那么可能降息50个基点是正确的。”他补充说。\n　　不过整体而言，达里奥强调，从长远来看，美联储本周的行动最终“不会有什么影响”，因为决策者最终需要将实际利率保持在低位，以便偿还不断增加的债务。\n　　无独有偶。“华尔街一哥”、美国第一大银行摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也认为，无论美联储是降息25个基点还是50个基点，这一举措的影响“都不会是惊天动地的”。\n　　“他们需要这样做，”戴蒙在周二的一次会议上表示：”但当美联储加息和降息时，这只是一件小事，因为在这背后是实体经济。”\n　　史上“最难测”\n　　目前，市场普遍预计美联储将在本次会议上降息，但对于降息幅度一直存在分歧。CME美联储观察工具显示，降息50个基点的概率高达61%，但也有39%的可能性降息25个基点。此次的美联储会议可以说是史上最难以预测的了。\n\n　　投资公司Allspring固定收益首席投资策略师George Bory表示：“在美联储行动前24小时出现市场分歧是非常罕见的。通常，在这个时间点，美联储会传达或引导市场预期非常具体的行动。”\n　　德银分析师则评论称，美联储此次决议很可能是“15年来最大的意外”。\n　　金融服务企业StoneX集团市场研究主管Matt Weller表示：“没有人十分确定……人们得出了不同的估计，如果你愿意的话可以称之为猜测，但其中大约有一半的人是错误的。”\n　　“因此，他们将不得不调整自己的立场。无论如何，我们都可能会看到市场出现相当大的波动，”他补充说。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：丁文武","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"Policy And Regulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.0","shortVersion":"4.29.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2468562379"}