高盛：宁德时代减产短期可使锂价见底但锂周期总体前景仍非常“负面”

华尔街见闻09-12

瑞银Sky Han等日前发布研报《中国锂价见底》称，据内部消息，宁德时代已在9月10日决定暂停其在江西的锂云母业务，导致广交所碳酸锂期货主力合约一度暴涨。对此，高盛分析师Trina Chen和Joy Zhang在周四的一份客户报告中表示，宁德时代此次减产可能在多年的熊市中为锂价带来“短期”底部，暂时缓解供应过剩的担忧。然而，他们强调，锂周期的总体前景仍然非常“负面”。分析师表示：“虽然关于生产削减...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202409122316139560aea8&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银Sky Han等日前发布研报《中国锂价见底》称，据内部消息，宁德时代已在9月10日决定暂停其在江西的锂云母业务，导致广交所碳酸锂期货主力合约一度暴涨。对此，高盛分析师Trina Chen和Joy Zhang在周四的一份客户报告中表示，宁德时代此次减产可能在多年的熊市中为锂价带来“短期”底部，暂时缓解供应过剩的担忧。然而，他们强调，锂周期的总体前景仍然非常“负面”。分析师表示：“虽然关于生产削减...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202409122316139560aea8&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0509642566.USD","symbol_name":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC 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Han周三对客户表示，宁德时代的最新动态可能意味着中国锂价在今年剩余时间内有11%至23%的上行空间。华尔街见闻此前文章称，瑞银表示，宁德时代暂停江西的锂业务将导致中国碳酸锂月产量减少8%，相当于每月减少5000-6000吨碳酸锂当量（LCE），在市场供需趋于平衡的背景下将长期利好锂价。报告预计，预计年内锂价还有11%-23%的上行空间，锂价将在8600美元/吨（约合人民币61183元/吨）时得到支撑。根据瑞银对2024年全球现金成本曲线的分析，长期看，预计锂价将在9909美元/吨（约合70496人民币/吨）时得到支撑，在10968美元/吨（约合人民币78030元/吨）时见顶，因为宁德时代可能会在锂价涨至该水平时恢复其锂业务。报告此前分析指出，宁德时代锂业务的现金成本大约是每吨10968美元（不含税）或者89000元人民币（含税）。根据上海有色网（SMM）的数据，从2024年7月中旬开始，碳酸锂的现货价格就一直在宁德时代的成本线之下。这意味着宁德时代的锂业务已连续两个月亏损。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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高盛：宁德时代减产短期可使锂价见底 但锂周期总体前景仍非常“负面”

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高盛：宁德时代减产短期可使锂价见底但锂周期总体前景仍非常“负面”