美国大选逼近 PolitiFi还能迎来辉煌吗

金色精选09-14

作者：David Canellis，Blockworks；编译：陶朱，金色财经政治 memecoins — PolitiFi — 在上半年有过一段辉煌时期。但此后一直处于搁置状态。五种最知名的代币 MAGA (TRUMP)、MAGA Hat (MAGA)、Doland Tremp (TREMP)、Jeo Boden (BODEN) 和 Kamala Horris (KAMA) 的总市值在 6 月初...

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memecoin 的超级碗）还有 50 多天。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jinse.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"MAGA":"Point Bridge America First ETF","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4595":"比特币概念","BK4023":"应用软件"},"translate_title":"As the US election approaches, can PolitiFi still usher in glory?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MAGA":1},"content_text":"作者：David Canellis，Blockworks；编译：陶朱，金色财经政治 memecoins — PolitiFi — 在上半年有过一段辉煌时期。但此后一直处于搁置状态。五种最知名的代币 MAGA (TRUMP)、MAGA Hat (MAGA)、Doland Tremp (TREMP)、Jeo Boden (BODEN) 和 Kamala Horris (KAMA) 的总市值在 6 月初达到峰值，超过 12.5 亿美元。现在它们的价值不到 1.7 亿美元，跌幅接近 90%。根据 CoinGecko 的数据，ConstitutionDAO 的残余部分在 2021 年底的一场拍卖中败给了 Citadel 首席执行官 Ken Griffin，后者将一份罕见的美国宪法初版拍卖给了 Citadel 首席执行官 Ken Griffin，现在几乎占据了整个 PolitiFi 市场的三分之二。不过，它是否真的应该与政治模仿 memecoins 等并列还有待商榷。去年这个时候，PolitiFi 甚至还不存在。这个选举季是它的重要时刻，最大的特朗普模因币 (Trump memecoin) 将于 2023 年 8 月推出——就在比特币为其大规模反弹做准备的时候。过去 14 个月，ETH 的表现一直落后于标准普尔 500 指数比特币在 10 月至 3 月之间的牛市确实为 PolitiFi 提供了掩护。上图绘制了五大政治 memecoins 的市值（后面的褪色区域）与比特币（橙线）、以太坊（紫线）和标准普尔 500 指数（蓝线）的表现。您可以看到，PolitiFi 在此期间基本反映了 ETH 的价格走势——紫线遵循 PolitiFi 市值的形状——而比特币至少目前表现更好。PolitiFi 结束了吗？可能不会。但考虑到以卡玛拉·哈里斯为主题的 memecoins 表现并不比特朗普的 memecoins 好，这多少说明了问题。这种特定类型的 memecoin 下跌的一个简单原因可能是没有新的感兴趣的持有者进入其市场，他们的流动性可能超过卖家并推高价格。MAGA 的持有者分布在四个不同的区块链上，其中约四分之三在以太坊和 Solana 上这张图表放大了最大的特朗普模因币的市值（如橙色线所示），并将其与新持有者数量的变化进行了映射。请注意，特朗普叙述中的要点与大量新持有者的涌入直接吻合。在最高法院的选举投票裁决、特朗普的“封口费”有罪判决以及 7 月的暗杀企图前后，数千个地址将 MAGA (TRUMP) 放入他们的包中。此后再没有这样的运气，截至周五上午，周二与哈里斯的辩论后只有 424 名新持有者。与此同时，Polymarket 对特朗普 11 月获胜的赔率已从 52% 降至 49%。总而言之，在持有 MAGA (TRUMP) 的 80,190 个地址中，约有 30%（24,300 个）是在代币于 6 月初创下 17.51 美元的历史高点后买入的。在损失了十分之九的价值后，它目前的交易价格为 2.25 美元。当然，80% 的跌幅是加密货币最古老的传统之一。但如果有时间让特朗普的头条新闻重振 PolitiFi，那么现在就是时候了。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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