中远海能(1138.HK)：扣非增长符合预期关注逆向布局时机

国泰君安09-10

本报告导读：2024 上半年扣非业绩同比增长，符合预期。地缘油价致24Q3 承压，不改油运超级牛市期权。油轮供给刚性凸显，原油增产或助力油运需求增长，建议逆向布局。投资要点：维持增持评级。上半年油运淡季不淡，公司盈利中枢继续上行。预计未来数年油运供需将继续向好，景气上升与持续将超预期。考虑地缘油价对油运市场短期影响，下调2024-26 年净利预测至55/70/80 亿元（原72/86/94 亿元...

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HK): Deducting non-growth is in line with expectations and paying attention to the timing of reverse layout","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01138":1},"content_text":"本报告导读：2024 上半年扣非业绩同比增长，符合预期。地缘油价致24Q3 承压，不改油运超级牛市期权。油轮供给刚性凸显，原油增产或助力油运需求增长，建议逆向布局。投资要点：维持增持评级 。上半年油运淡季不淡，公司盈利中枢继续上行。预计未来数年油运供需将继续向好，景气上升与持续将超预期。考虑地缘油价对油运市场短期影响，下调2024-26 年净利预测至55/70/80 亿元（原72/86/94 亿元）。建议关注逆向布局时机，增持。2024 上半年扣非净利同比增长，符合市场预期。公司2024 上半年归母净利润26.1 亿元，同比下降7%；扣非净利同比增长8%，略好于业绩预告。据波交所运价，考虑VLCC 收入确认滞后约一个月，2023-24 上半年6 个季度单季业绩对应的VLCC 中东-中国TCE 均值分别为3.4/5.2/3.1/2.9/4.2/4.4 万美元。公司24Q2 归母净利13.7 亿元，环比24Q1 的12.4 亿元稳中有升，符合运价趋势；同比下降源于23Q2 高基数，市场预期充分。此外，上半年成品油运市场景气创历史新高，公司成品油轮盈利大增助力扣非净利同比增长。地缘油价致24Q3 承压，原油增产或助油运需求增长。油价波动对油运市场影响直接且复杂，我们认为关键在于油价波动原因。油价通常受经济、供给、地缘等影响，致需求曲线的移动或需求曲线上点的变动。2024 上半年油价中枢上升，更多源于地缘局势而非需求，导致炼厂利润下降与开工不足，过去数月油运市场承压。预计公司把握货盘集中成交锁定高价，经营或好于行业运价指数。近日利比亚与伊拉克缩减原油供应，或推动OPEC+10 月逐步增产。若增产持续将有望通过油价回落驱动终端消费与油运需求增长。油轮供给刚性凸显，油运需求有望稳健增长，未来数年供需将继续向好，景气上升与持续将超预期。公司盈利弹性充足，将充分受益油运景气。油轮规模下单意愿不足，高分红政策有望持续。公司在手订单以LNG 及小型油轮为主，近年VLCC 老旧船舶淘汰，而规模下单意愿不足。公司2023 年实施股权激励计划，近两年分红比例维持近50%左右高位。公司市值管理与股东回报积极，预计高分红政策将有望持续，估算2024 年股息率近4%，且未来数年盈利中枢或继续上行。风险提示。经济波动,地缘形势,环保新政实施不及预期,安全事故。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.0","shortVersion":"4.28.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2466809554"}

中远海能(1138.HK)：扣非增长符合预期 关注逆向布局时机

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中远海能(1138.HK)：扣非增长符合预期关注逆向布局时机