美股短期凶多吉少？华尔街投行纷纷转向谨慎立场

金十数据09-10

最近几周，美股的波动率显著上升，交易员越来越担心任何表明美国经济降温速度快于预期的迹象。标普500指数从8月下旬的峰值下跌了约3%。瑞银集团（UBS AG）美国股票衍生品首席策略师表示，她预计标普500指数将在未来一个月内从峰值下跌至少10%。股市处于紧张状态，黑线：VIX指数；红线：标普500指数Rebecca Cheong周二在给客户的一份报告中写道：“我在战术上对未来两个月的美股看跌，即使...

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Wall Street investment banks are turning to cautious stance","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf54dd7c8677077c58d391a2cad8f8f9","symbols_score_info":{"HYG":1,"SPY":0.9,"IWM":0.8,"UWM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"TZA":0.6,"TWM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SRTY":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"RWM":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IWO":0.6,"IWN":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MRTYmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"最近几周，美股的波动率显著上升，交易员越来越担心任何表明美国经济降温速度快于预期的迹象。标普500指数从8月下旬的峰值下跌了约3%。瑞银集团（UBS AG）美国股票衍生品首席策略师表示，她预计标普500指数将在未来一个月内从峰值下跌至少10%。股市处于紧张状态，黑线：VIX指数；红线：标普500指数Rebecca Cheong周二在给客户的一份报告中写道：“我在战术上对未来两个月的美股看跌，即使即将发布的任何经济数据只是轻微令人失望，也可能引发大幅下跌。”她建议投资者购买尾部对冲基金以防止损失，并将iShares罗素2000指数ETF（IWM）、SPDR金融精选行业基金（XLF US）和iShares iBoxx高收益公司债券ETF（HYG）列为首选。Cheong补充说，虽然她的观点反映出市场越来越悲观，但这并不是一个长期观点。“如果没有新闻事件，市场可能只会继续出现适度的抛售，”她补充说。其他策略师也持短期的谨慎立场，例如高盛集团的克里斯蒂安·穆勒-格利斯曼（Christian Mueller-Glissmann）。他在9月9日的一份报告中表示，股票的风险调整后回报率将在年底前下降，但标普500指数不太可能陷入熊市。他说，美股不太可能暴跌20%或更多，因为经济衰退的风险仍然很低，而美联储预计将降息。以他为首的团队表示，受到估值上升、增长前景喜忧参半和政策不确定性的打击，虽然股市在年底前可能有更多回撤风险，但彻底进入熊市的可能性很小，因为经济在一定程度上也得到了“私营部门健康的增长”的支持。此外，策略师的历史分析显示，在更长的商业周期、较低的宏观经济波动性和央行政策的“缓冲”推动下，标普500指数自1990年代以来下跌超过20%的频率已经降低。在报告中，他们表示在资产配置方面保持战术中立，但在12个月的期限内“温和地支持追逐风险”。另外，来自花旗集团的数据显示“看跌倾向”，表明美股主要指数在短期内容易进一步下跌。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2466452300"}