苹果首台AI手机iPhone16落地！新一波产业投资周期来了？

摩根士丹利基金...09-10

北京时间9月10日凌晨，被誉为“科技春晚”的苹果秋季发布会如期召开，重点展示了新款iPhone、Apple Watch、Airpods等新品。其中搭载了最新3nm制程A18系列芯片的iPhone 16是全场焦点。作为苹果的首款AI手机，无论是苹果用户还是广大投资者都对它给予厚望。那么新一轮超级换机周期是否会“如期”到来呢？新iPhone的发布又会带来哪些投资机会呢？苹果智能首秀，AI手机迎超级周期...

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Is a new wave of industrial investment cycle coming?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1,"SOX":0.7,"NVDA":0.6},"content_text":"北京时间9月10日凌晨，被誉为“科技春晚”的苹果秋季发布会如期召开，重点展示了新款iPhone、Apple Watch、Airpods等新品。其中搭载了最新3nm制程A18系列芯片的iPhone 16是全场焦点。作为苹果的首款AI手机，无论是苹果用户还是广大投资者都对它给予厚望。那么新一轮超级换机周期是否会“如期”到来呢？新iPhone的发布又会带来哪些投资机会呢？苹果智能首秀，AI手机迎超级周期？相较于今年6月苹果WWDC发布的Apple Intelligence（以下称“苹果智能”），本次发布会并没有太多软件上的变化，主要包括了以Writing Tools和Image Playground为代表的两款全新独立App，更智能的Siri，以及强调用户隐私保护的云端服务器Private Cloud Compute。硬件上，iPhone 16系列配置了强大的A18仿生芯片，能够满足苹果智能所需的算力需求，相较上一代芯片，A18的机器学习速度提升了两倍。对于市场最关注的上线时间，苹果此次明确表示，苹果智能英文版将于下月开始登陆美国市场，并从12月起陆续在澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰、南非、英国等地上线；对于中文、法文、日文等其他语言的支持则要等到2025年。有了苹果智能的加持，iPhone 16有望释放被压抑的需求，并加快iPhone的换机周期。根据市场预估，iPhone 16系列2024年出货量或有望达到8800万~8900万部，到2024年底，全球生成式人工智能（GenAI）手机将增长344%，占据18%的市场份额。数据来源：IDC摩根士丹利基金权益投资部副总监、大摩数字经济混合基金经理雷志勇此前表示，AI手机与5G换机潮非常类似，1%的换机率预计可推高苹果6%销量，能带来1.8%的苹果收入的提升。不过，相比换机潮，雷志勇认为，苹果智能的意义更大在于GenAI有望第一次深入大众消费者的日常生活。苹果AI有望给苹果自身带来千亿级别的增量，如果在2025年有3-5亿用户每个月10元的AI付费、对应的是近50亿元/月，而15亿存量用户对应的就是150亿元/月、超过1000亿元/年。AI行业下一步怎么走？那么这波苹果智能带来的换机周期会对近期承压的AI行业产生什么影响呢？近期，美国科技公司，尤其是与AI芯片相关的板块都面临压力。从7月11日的高点算起，截止上周五9月6日，费城半导体指数累计跌超23%（资料来源：Wind）。而苹果发布会的召开成功为科技板块注入了一丝活力，费城半导体指数当日反弹2.15%，纳斯达克指数也收涨1.16%（资料来源：Wind）。事实上，相比此前比较“朦胧”的元宇宙等新兴概念，近两年的AI飞速发展所带来的相关业绩是肉眼可见的。以某全球AI芯片龙头企业为例，它与AI相关的数据中心收入近两年时间节节攀升，数据中心占总收入比重从不到6成升至最近一个财季的87.46%，这都是AI带来的实打实的增长。数据来源：某全球AI芯片龙头企业公开报告所以，尽管短期承压，但人工智能的大趋势并没有改变，雷志勇认为，人工智能的演进有阶段性，可能在某一阶段会低于预期，但不能证明人工智能就失败了。人工智能的远景是星辰大海，是通用人工智能，不仅仅是问答式的去提炼网络上的资料，它要能够在某些艰苦的环境或者一些重复劳动上，去替代人类、帮完成这些工作，要实现这个目标还有很长的距离。雷志勇还指出，虽然投资端已经很火热，但从产业端来看，人工智能还在左侧。具体到投资机会上，雷志勇看好AI对云端算力以及终端消费产品需求的拉动。他表示，目前，海内外巨头公司除了在算力云端发力，也开始往应用端、特别是智能终端演进，在智能终端产业链中，国内企业可以作为配套制造产业链，有订单作为业绩兑现支撑。在本轮AI终端创新周期中，除了终端自身迎来销量的增长以外，他预计使用终端将带来巨大的推理算力需求，而这有望对算力芯片的需求再上一个台阶。同时，终端一旦普及AI，各种软件和模型收入或许也将迎来真正的C端普及和爆发。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Product Release","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2466438807"}