全球半导体股遭遇多重利空

36氪09-05

资料图英伟达3日下跌10%，总市值减少约2800亿美元，创出美股史上最大跌幅。Tokyo Electron、台积电等也出现大跌。除了对AI急剧增长的怀疑之外，个人电脑等最终产品的需求减退引发担忧。也有观点认为当下是投资良机……全球半导体关联股正在调整。在9月3日的美国股市，美国英伟达股价暴跌。在4日的东京市场，Tokyo Electron股票等也遭到抛售。除了对人工智能（AI）市场急剧增长的怀疑...

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Electron、台积电等也出现大跌。除了对AI急剧增长的怀疑之外，个人电脑等最终产品的需求减退引发担忧。也有观点认为当下是投资良机……全球半导体关联股正在调整。在9月3日的美国股市，美国英伟达股价暴跌。在4日的东京市场，Tokyo Electron股票等也遭到抛售。除了对人工智能（AI）市场急剧增长的怀疑态度之外，个人电脑等最终产品的需求减退引发担忧，利空因素接连不断。英伟达股票3日以108美元结束交易，比前一交易日下跌11.37美元（10%），创出约4个半月以来的最大跌幅。总市值比前一个交易日减少了约2800亿美元。单日减幅超过2022年4月的亚马逊（约2000亿美元）等，创出美国股市史上最大跌幅。英伟达股价的暴跌成为震源，在美国股市，博通和AMD等半导体关联股纷纷下跌。而在4日的东京市场，Tokyo Electron和爱德万测试一度比前一天暴跌10%。在亚洲市场，台积电（TSMC）下跌了6%，韩国SK海力士下跌9%。英伟达股价自8月下旬公布2024年5~7月财报以来持续下跌。让投资者变得慎重的原因之一是，有观点指出使用该公司半导体开发的AI的需求并未像市场期待的那样增长。美国风险投资巨头红杉资本计算了各公司需要多少与目前购买英伟达半导体的规模相称的AI相关营业收入。分析称，包括微软和苹果等美国科技巨头在内的全部采购企业需要6000亿美元，但实际上目前仅为1000亿美元左右。也就是说，消费者和企业使用的AI服务的实际需求少了5000亿美元。日本大和证券的高级策略师柴田光浩表示，“数据中心用AI半导体的需求目前没有变化，但在购买英伟达图形处理器（GPU）的IT巨头，看不到AI业务的盈利化”。如果不能为盈利作出贡献，各公司的AI投资有可能会告一段落，“市场对2025年以后的需求增长产生了怀疑”。对于个人电脑和智能手机等最终产品的需求，也出现了看跌的观点。原以为个人电脑和智能手机的需求正在缓慢恢复，但其速度可能低于预期。瑞穗证券的首席经济学家小林俊介表示，“从包括半导体在内的电子产品及零部件的全球出货和库存情况来看，出货量增长放缓，库存量正在转为增加”。根据瑞银（UBS）2日的报告，世界半导体销售额在7月环比减少11%。据悉，出现中国个人电脑和智能手机制造商基于目前的库存情况而减少DRAM等采购量的情况。3日公布的8月美国供应管理协会（ISM）制造业指数连续5个月低于50的荣枯线。日生资产管理公司的首席分析师山本真以人表示，虽然指数只是略低于市场预期，但“在未对前景变得乐观的情况下出现疲软的经济指标，因此产生强烈反应”。此外，似乎也有对英伟达因涉嫌违反反托拉斯法而被美国司法部命令提供信息的报道作出强烈反应的一面。显示股价达到预期每股收益（EPS）的多少倍、体现市场心理强弱的预期PER（市盈率）正在下降。英伟达在7月中旬之前一直保持在40倍以上，但目前已降至30倍区间。Tokyo 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