S&P标普全球：2024年起TOPCon技术成为光伏行业主流，市占比将超70%，2030年前将持续为主流技术

索比光伏网09-05

来源 | 投稿近日，国际知名市场研究机构标普全球（S&P Global）发布的《光伏技术报告》指出，光伏行业正处于向n型技术的快速转型期，预计在2024年，这一转型将进入关键阶段。在众多n型光伏技术路线中，TOPCon技术以其高效率、高性价比以及对现有PERC生产线的兼容性脱颖而出，成为行业主流。报告预计到2026年，TOPCon的市场份额将攀升至70%。标普全球大宗商品市场洞察S&P ...

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多年的悠久历史，为全球市场提供最前沿的研究和分析。竞争激发创新光伏技术加速迭代当前，光伏行业竞争加剧，也由此推动了技术的快速创新与迭代。标普全球报告指出，自2010年以来，组件价格和生产成本显著下降，到2023年分别下降了87%和90%以上。激烈的竞争下，光伏行业也越来越关注更先进、效率更高的n型产品。与传统p型技术相比，n型技术在效率和可靠性方面具有诸多优势，包括低衰减、低温度系数、高双面率、优异的低辐照性能等。这些优势不仅显著提升了发电量，还有效降低了平准化度电成本（LCOE），为投资者带来更高的回报。低成本高回报TOPCon成最优选众多n型技术路线中，TOPCon技术以其独特的优势备受行业青睐。标普全球报告指出，TOPCon技术的核心原理在于通过在电池背面制备一层超薄氧化硅，然后再沉积一层掺杂硅薄膜层，二者共同形成钝化接触结构，有效降低硅片表面复合和金属接触复合，从而提高太阳电池的效率。与XBC技术相比，TOPCon实现了钝化技术的显著迭代，过往主流电池技术的进步也正是基于钝化技术的持续提升。报告同时提到，TOPCon在设备成本和生产线兼容性方面具有明显优势。TOPCon 与 PERC 均为高温工艺，可以最大程度保留现有 p型电池的设备制程，这使得TOPCon技术能够在不需要对现有PERC生产线进行大幅改造的情况下，实现技术升级，显著降低生产成本。标普全球还指出，随着p型电池生产商逐步将生产线升级至n型TOPCon技术，TOPCon在未来几年将占据越来越大的市场份额。预计从2024年起，TOPCon将成为光伏行业中应用最广泛的技术路线，到2026年，其全球市场份额将达到70%。8月16日，在由中国光伏行业协会主办的“2024 TOPCon太阳能电池技术发展趋势研讨会”上，与会的晶科、晶澳、天合、通威、一道等公司的技术高管们均对TOPcon技术给予了认可，并一致认为该技术具有出色的产业生态，性能可靠且无明显短板。看个广告休息一下吧领先企业布局TOPCon加速市场渗透TOPCon高效能和低成本的特点使其成为光伏行业中性价比最高的技术路线之一，从相关企业发布的产能规划来看，TOPCon电池也是扩产的重点技术。包括晶科、晶澳、天合、通威在内的多家全球领先的光伏组件制造商已纷纷加大对TOPCon的投资力度。根据标普全球的预测，2030年前，TOPCon将持续占据光伏行业主流地位。卓越性能和成本效益之外，TOPCon技术也展现出强大的可持续成长性。突破晶硅电池极限的下一代光伏技术是叠层电池，已成行业共识。相比于XBC，TOPCon更适合作为叠层电池的底电池，且更具性价比，因此TOPCon技术有很强劲的底层生命力。未来，通过应用钝化接触电池技术和叠层电池技术，TOPCon电池效率将实现更高的突破，持续引领光伏行业发展。特别声明：索比光伏网所转载其他内容,出于传递更多信息而非盈利之目的,同时并不代表赞成其观点或证实其描述,内容仅供参考。版权归原作者所有,若有侵权,请联系我们删除。—结束—","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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