社会服务行业2024年中报业绩综述：社服板块24H1收入增长但利润略降 K12培训、出境游、人服行业表现亮眼

民生证券股份有...09-05

社服板块24H1 收入增长但利润略降，24Q2 收入利润承压。社服板块24H1 收入1174.30 亿元/yoy+4.95%，归母净利润为72.75 亿元/yoy-0.39%，归母净利润较23 年同期略降；社服板块24Q2 收入及利润均有下滑，收入为577.26 亿元/yoy-11.62%，归母净利润为34.86 亿元/yoy-13.31%。从细分板块来看，2024 年上半年出行子板块表现分化，...

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收入124.58 亿元/同比-17.44%，归母净利润9.76 亿元/同比-37.60%，业绩仍处短期承压态势，可能是当前环境下出入境分流影响离岛免税销售叠加宏观因素影响整体消费力所致；餐饮行业24H1 收入23.74 亿元/同比+5.94%，归母净利润0.22 亿元/同比-35.58%，24Q2 收入11.12 亿元/同比-4.40%，归母净利润-0.15 亿元/同比-208.92%，24H1 营收增长但归母净利润下滑，24Q2 营收下滑/归母净利润处亏损状态，主要是A 股餐饮中高权重的同庆楼/广州酒家当前均处业务扩张状态，新酒店/门店尚处爬坡阶段导致利润短期承压；教育板块表现分化，K12 培训板块24H1 收入27.77 亿元/同比+26.09%，归母净利润1.85 亿元/同比+47.06%;24Q2 收入14.90 亿元/同比+20.57%，归母净利润0.89 亿元/同比扭亏为盈，K12 培训板块24Q2 实现收入利润双增，验证教培产业景气度和供需逻辑。职教板块24H1 收入20.06 亿元/同比-12.69%，归母净利润2.56 亿元/同比+38.75%；24Q2 收入10.36 亿元/同比-10.88%，归母净利润1.50 亿元/同比+2.53%，其中行动教育稳健增长，中国东方教育降本增效效果显著，传智教育相对承压，公考龙头华图山鼎收款稳健、业绩受费率影响波动大。整体看，教培行业依旧是逻辑较强的主线，建议关注，此外关注优质职教个股。人力资源板块24H1 收入379.50 亿元/同比+14.50%，归母净利润6.54 亿元/同比+8.84%，24Q2 收入193.89 亿元/同比-24.31%，归母净利润4.39 亿元/同比-6.19%，龙头企业的外包业务均实现增长带动收入提升，但各自顺周期业务如猎头/人事管理业务相对承压影响公司利润表现，此外跨区域布局的公司还受到境外业务表现影响。投资建议：1）推荐基本面扎实的景区标的长白山、九华旅游、宋城演艺，建议关注天目湖、众信旅游、黄山旅游、峨眉山A、三峡旅游。2）推荐扎根下沉市场客群、旅游业务发展迅速的OTA 龙头同程旅行。3）教育板块景气度上行，推荐华图山鼎、中国东方教育、行动教育，建议关注豆神教育、学大教育、凯文教育。4）海南离岛免税客流超预期，重点推荐中国中免、王府井；5）酒店估值回调较多，核心标的估值处于历史较低位置，重点推荐锦江酒店、首旅酒店、君亭酒店、华住集团、金陵饭店，建议关注美股亚朵集团；6）人服主线重点推荐商业模式存在防御属性的北京人力，建议关注科锐国际、外服控股；7）推荐外展业务高景气、成长空间较大的米奥会展，建议关注兰生股份。8）推荐疫后同店有望修复、成长性基本面较强、新品牌&新业态正在孵化的海伦司、海底捞、同庆楼、广州酒家，建议关注餐饮龙头九毛九、奈雪的茶、呷哺呷哺。风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、行业竞争加剧风险等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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