高盛坚定看好拼多多：Q2增速依旧最快之一，低于10倍的PE已反映忧虑，Temu都没给估值

华尔街见闻08-27

拼多多一夜大跌近30%，创IPO以来最大跌幅，低于预期的业绩和公司高管警告令市场信心受挫，但高盛力挺拼多多。隔夜，拼多多发布二季度业绩，营收同比增长86%，距离突破千亿大关近一步之遥，略低于市场预期；但同时实现连续第六个季度经调运营利润超预期，达到350亿，同比增长139%。高盛在最新报告中对拼多多给予买入评级，12个月基础目标价为184美元：拼多多今年股价表现不佳，目前市盈率低于10倍...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3725836><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>拼多多一夜大跌近30%，创IPO以来最大跌幅，低于预期的业绩和公司高管警告令市场信心受挫，但高盛力挺拼多多。\n\n隔夜，拼多多发布二季度业绩，营收同比增长86%，距离突破千亿大关近一步之遥，略低于市场预期；但同时实现连续第六个季度经调运营利润超预期，达到350亿，同比增长139%。\n高盛在最新报告中对拼多多给予买入评级，12个月基础目标价为184美元：\n\n拼多多今年股价表现不佳，目前市盈率低于10倍...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3725836\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0072462343.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3725836","article_id":"2462977823","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/88329100-b225-4c5c-acb6-9e029c07f361.png"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3725836","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462977823","pubTimestamp":1724719387,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛力挺拼多多，认为盈率低于10倍已反映国内竞争加剧和Temu地缘的担忧，且Temu增长势头持续，对其给予买入评级且12个月目标价定为184美元。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG 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valuation","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":1,"KWEB":0.6,"L":0.6},"content_text":"拼多多一夜大跌近30%，创IPO以来最大跌幅，低于预期的业绩和公司高管警告令市场信心受挫，但高盛力挺拼多多。\n\n隔夜，拼多多发布二季度业绩，营收同比增长86%，距离突破千亿大关近一步之遥，略低于市场预期；但同时实现连续第六个季度经调运营利润超预期，达到350亿，同比增长139%。\n高盛在最新报告中对拼多多给予买入评级，12个月基础目标价为184美元：\n\n拼多多今年股价表现不佳，目前市盈率低于10倍，已经反映投资者对国内竞争加剧和Temu地缘政治的担忧。\n与此同时，拼多多GMV更快增长和交易服务收入超预期，意味着Temu增长势头持续。拼多多迄今为止仍是中国互联网第二季度业绩增长最快的公司之一，其战略/投资将推动未来的增长。\n我们对拼多多持买入评级，基于其广告技术能力（ROI基础营销工具）以及中国具有成本竞争力的供应商/商家/供应链，加上有利的风险回报，12个月基础目标价为184美元，较目前有84%上行空间，当前市值并未包括对Temu的估值。\n\n对于隔夜的大跌，高盛认为这一剧烈负面反应可能源于三方面：\n\n1、在财报发布前，投资者的期望值很高。由于市场预期结果强劲，平多多股价自7月底以来上涨了约20%，而同期KWEB（KraneShares中国海外互联网ETF ）指数下跌了4%；\n2、在线营销服务增长出现首次正常化迹象，同比增长放缓至29%，不及市场的预期。但我们认为拼多多的表现仍然明显优于阿里客户管理收入增长1%，以及快手电商广告的中位数增长。\n3、管理层的评论吓到了市场，拼多多管理层在电话会中指出，由于竞争加剧/和长期盈利能力可能下降以推动高质量发展，预计未来收入增长将放缓并牺牲短期利润；拼多多计划未来12个月拿出100亿元支持优质商家；由于整体仍处于投入阶段，拼多多在未来几年不会进行回购或分红。\n\n此外，高盛指出拼多多业绩亮点还包括，Temu强劲的GMV达到110亿美元，交易佣金收入同比增长了234%。由于在成熟市场（如美国）减少补贴水平以及对采购价格的严格控制，利润率逐季提高。调整后的EBIT（息税前利润）也超出预期，这可能归因于国内盈利能力和Temu单位盈利能力的提高。\n不过，高盛也同时给出股价下行警告：\n\n（1）由于电子商务投资回报率下降/基于销售的广告库存增加，以及与行业之间的GMV增长差距缩小，在线营销收入可能低于预期；（2）进入欧洲和其他消费能力强的发达市场时，地缘政治逆风可能比预期更大；（3）如果阿里的新低价广告举措获得成功，抖音基于货架的低价位商品扩展速度超预期，竞争可能比预期更激烈；（4）为了维持增长而进行的再投资可能会对核心利润率构成下行风险；（5）缺乏业务绩效和盈利能力的分部披露，这可能导致分析/估计国内和国际（Temu）绩效和盈利能力时遇到困难。\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n 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