降息潮来袭，银行股或将迎来反弹！如何把握投资机会？

金十数据08-28

金融股票曾不受许多投资者的青睐，但这种情况似乎正在改变。期权市场的布局以及最近的股市表现显示，激进的投资者开始为显著的收益做准备。这种乐观情绪似乎基于对美联储最早将在九月降息的预期。降息可能会激发银行的盈利商业活动，并为房地产行业注入新活力。金融板块最近的价格表现异常突出，尽管并未引起太多关注。评论界过于关注时下流行的话题，比如人工智能、降息以及沃伦·巴菲特决定兑现一些关键持股。巴菲特最近...

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How to seize investment opportunities?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XLF":1,"CWK":1,"SPY":0.77,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"金融股票曾不受许多投资者的青睐，但这种情况似乎正在改变。\n期权市场的布局以及最近的股市表现显示，激进的投资者开始为显著的收益做准备。\n这种乐观情绪似乎基于对美联储最早将在九月降息的预期。降息可能会激发银行的盈利商业活动，并为房地产行业注入新活力。\n金融板块最近的价格表现异常突出，尽管并未引起太多关注。评论界过于关注时下流行的话题，比如人工智能、降息以及沃伦·巴菲特决定兑现一些关键持股。\n巴菲特最近减少了对美国银行(BAC.N)的巨额投资，给该行业情绪带来了负面影响。巴菲特被认为对银行和经纪人有超凡的理解，几乎没有人愿意与他的交易相对立。然而，金融精选行业SPDR交易所交易基金（XLF）自四月中旬以来已上涨约13%，表现优于标普500指数约12%的涨幅。\nXLF的股票图表表明，受利率敏感的金融板块刚刚突破历史上限制涨幅的水平。如果XLF的温和突破进一步加强，XLF将明显交易于历史高位。\n自七月中旬以来，XLF已经两次尝试——并失败——突破44美元。第三次突破44美元发生在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的鸽派讲话之后，这恢复了乐观情绪，并似乎让XLF进入了一个等待模式，等待该板块下一个重大催化剂：美联储两天的利率设定委员会会议将在9月18日结束。\n为了为XLF的突破做好准备，激进投资者可以考虑风险反转策略。这包括卖出一个看跌期权并购买一个更高行权价但到期日相同的看涨期权。这一策略让投资者在回调时购买XLF，同时参与任何涨幅。\n在XLF为44.80美元时，投资者可以卖出12月的41美元看跌期权并购买12月的48美元看涨期权。如果股价达到55美元，看涨期权价值为7美元。如果到期时股价低于41美元，投资者必须以41美元的行权价购买XLF，或者调整看跌期权以避免被分配。在过去的52周中，XLF的价格在31.36美元到44.82美元之间波动。\n选择12月到期是为了捕捉9月、11月和12月的美联储会议。这个到期日还为银行和房地产公司提供时间，向投资者说明由于降息而发生的业务变化。\n期权市场在金融和房地产板块的看涨交易中热闹非凡，预期它们将重新崛起。如果降息推动抵押贷款申请和再融资，这些交易将会带来利润。\nSusquehanna金融集团最近建议客户，一位投资者以54美分的价格购买了5000个3月到期的XLF 49美元看涨期权。\n另一位投资者以40美分的价格购买了5000个11月到期的房地产服务公司Cushman & Wakefield(CWK.N)的15美元看涨期权，这很可能是为了公司财报。该股票最近的价格约为13美元。这笔交易具有重要意义，Cushman & Wakefield的平均日交易量约为96份合约。\n与此同时，Susquehanna建议客户，一位投资者以约2美元的价格平仓了10000个9月到期的iShares美国房地产ETF 98美元看涨期权，并以1.05美元的价格购买了14000个9月到期的100美元看涨期权。\n将这些不同的部分综合起来，这就意味着：资金像水一样流向最低点。如果美联储降息，金融板块可能会以看涨的姿态出现，成为市场的低水位标志。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2462844438"}