五大行创新高，一个重大的信号

格隆汇08-27

A股的资金方向更加明确了——逃离赛道成长，抱团高息红利。一边是深成指、创业板指跌约1%，两市超4100只个股下跌，成交额只有5千亿出头，继续缩量；另一边是五大行再创历史新高，煤炭、光伏、石化等少数领域领涨。前者代表的是各赛道成长板块继续集体失声，后者代表的是几大业绩稳健的高息资产重新成抱团核心。即使是后者也出现了分化，一些虽然业绩增长挺强但已经涨太高的这一次没能跟上。只有银行、能源这些业绩更加稳健...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2462193685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2/110.png","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-08-27 21:32","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","id":"2462193685","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"五大行创新高，一个重大的信号","media":"格隆汇","content":"<div>\n<p>A股的资金方向更加明确了——逃离赛道成长，抱团高息红利。一边是深成指、创业板指跌约1%，两市超4100只个股下跌，成交额只有5千亿出头，继续缩量；另一边是五大行再创历史新高，煤炭、光伏、石化等少数领域领涨。前者代表的是各赛道成长板块继续集体失声，后者代表的是几大业绩稳健的高息资产重新成抱团核心。即使是后者也出现了分化，一些虽然业绩增长挺强但已经涨太高的这一次没能跟上。只有银行、能源这些业绩更加稳健...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/966137\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gelonghui_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>五大行创新高，一个重大的信号</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n五大行创新高，一个重大的信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-27 21:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/966137><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A股的资金方向更加明确了——逃离赛道成长，抱团高息红利。一边是深成指、创业板指跌约1%，两市超4100只个股下跌，成交额只有5千亿出头，继续缩量；另一边是五大行再创历史新高，煤炭、光伏、石化等少数领域领涨。前者代表的是各赛道成长板块继续集体失声，后者代表的是几大业绩稳健的高息资产重新成抱团核心。即使是后者也出现了分化，一些虽然业绩增长挺强但已经涨太高的这一次没能跟上。只有银行、能源这些业绩更加稳健...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/966137\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1560","symbol_name":"内银股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/966137","article_id":"2462193685","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2/110.png"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462193685","pubTimestamp":1724765541,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"gelonghui_highlight","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"市场风险偏好在急速降低，","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"159329":"沙特ETF","159980":"有色ETF","515220":"煤炭ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","601288":"农业银行","601398":"工商银行","601939":"建设银行","601988":"中国银行","BK1560":"内银股","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","IE00BQJZWZ67.USD":"FRANKLIN MV ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQUITY GROWTH AND INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC (M) PLUS","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","SG9999001093.SGD":"United Greater China Fund A Acc SGD","LU2289578879.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A OPPORTUNITIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK0188":"融资融券","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK0187":"一线龙头","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0633140727.USD":"AB EMERGING MARKETS MULTI ASSET PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","00939":"建设银行","SG9999001226.SGD":"UNITED SUSTAINABLE ASIA TOP 50 \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK0175":"白马股","03143":"华夏香港银行股","IE00B19Z5X02.USD":"Legg Mason QS - MV Asia Pacific ex Japan Equity Growth and Income A Acc USD","LU0630378429.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU0314109678.HKD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (HKD) INC","BK0012":"证金概念","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0588545490.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0015":"沪股通50","BK0028":"国家队","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" ACC"},"translate_title":"The five major banks hit new highs, a major signal","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159329":0.9,"159980":0.9,"515220":0.9,"518880":0.9,"601288":0.9,"601398":0.9,"601939":0.9,"601988":0.9,"FDN":0.9,"00939":0.9,"03143":0.6},"content_text":"A股的资金方向更加明确了——逃离赛道成长，抱团高息红利。一边是深成指、创业板指跌约1%，两市超4100只个股下跌，成交额只有5千亿出头，继续缩量；另一边是五大行再创历史新高，煤炭、光伏、石化等少数领域领涨。前者代表的是各赛道成长板块继续集体失声，后者代表的是几大业绩稳健的高息资产重新成抱团核心。即使是后者也出现了分化，一些虽然业绩增长挺强但已经涨太高的这一次没能跟上。只有银行、能源这些业绩更加稳健又低波的资产，才有资格获得资金的认可。同时，从近几天沪深300ETF、中证ETF等盘中资金蠢蠢欲动的情况看出，这一次流进来的主力，国家队的力量占比可能较大。显然，它们是带着任务进来的。今天国有大型银行集体逆势大涨，工农中建交五大行再次创历史新高，它们在年内最低涨了37%，最多的涨了近50%，显著跑赢绝大多数的大市值公司。虽然今年的资金主基调是拥抱高息和确定性资产，这些资产普遍在金融、煤炭、电力、有色、公用事业等领域，其中轮股息率来看，银行还不是表现最好的一个，但如今国有行的整体表现显著强过了其他所有对手。截至今天，中证银行指数年内已创下超20%的涨幅，涨幅位居所有行业指数第一。这背后，归结起来的原因主要有两大方面：第一，也就是资金最关注的——安全性。在这轮大涨之前，五大行的股息率基本都有在6%左右，虽然可能没有煤炭、公用事业这些行业高，但它们的业绩增长长期都极为稳定，尤其五大行在银行内部板块中是波动率最低的，所以安全性极高。第二，是大量基金需要补票。今年一季度，公募基金的大仓位压根就没有在银行上，仓位占比仅2.46%，反而大仓位都集中在了食品饮料（13.15%）、生物医药（11.66%）以及电力设备（10.82%）上。到了二季度，银行在沪深300ETF当中的正常时期权重达到13.2%，但主动型的重仓股中只占比2.7%，低配幅度高达10.5%。可想而知之前基金对银行的低配有多严重。没想到，银行板块接连两个季度表现超预期强劲，由此吸引资金态度转变不能并开始重新补票上车。同时，银行作为险资的第一大重仓方向，也显著受益于保险资金的持续流入、增配。据机构研报梳理，上半年保险公司保费收入累计同比增长10.65%，保险资金运用余额也较年初增长9.62%，带来险资大量的配置需求。数据显示，今年来汇金大手笔买入沪深300、上证50等宽基ETF，成为市场主要增量资金。年内股票型ETF净流入6854.45亿元，流入最多的为跟踪沪深300指数相关ETF，年内净流入约4722.60亿元（银行的权重大）。如此大规模的增量资金进来，体量最庞大的银行都架不住被吹上天。我们不知道，它们在涨了那么多后还能不能继续涨，因为之前低配太严重，现在场外又还有大量的被动资金没有上车。而且国家对入市托底方式还是以ETF为主，这些资金最终有相当比例还会涌入银行和保险。但我们知道，这并非是好事，因为它反映出了一个严峻的客观事实——市场风险偏好在急速降低，大资金都在抱团取暖，而且不断缩圈，显得越来越焦虑。现在，市场的信心已经可说冷到了冰点。截至8月27日，今年来A股24个二级行业中，只有大金融、公用事业、能源这几个国营为主的行业指数上涨，其余零售、软件、医疗、半导体、地产等多数板块的跌幅都超过25%。年内有4810个股下跌，比例超过93%，有近500只个股跌幅已经腰斩，占了1/10。这导致即使大金融今年集体大涨了几万亿，A股总市值还是比去年7月时少了12万亿多。现在的每日成交额甚至只有5千亿出头，几乎只剩下年初时的一半。最近有分析说，如果把金融保险从上证指数踢掉，指数甚至都可能跌到2200位置，比2018年时惨烈多了。还有的说，大市跌到现在已经到了很多基金强平线，需要警惕新一轮的踩踏行情风险。在群里有些人甚至晒出了8月22日自己的场外ETF基金被被强平的短信。这一周下来A股跌幅更多，这个风险也更加值得重视。目前这种市场环境，大资金要么去抱团那些业绩稳定同时股息率不错的资产，要么选择清仓离场不玩。而散户就成为了最悲催的韭菜，因为他们会经常发现，自己的票总是一买就跌一卖就涨，或者突然各种踩雷，这种情况越来越多。总的来说，现在A股进入熊市周期已不容置疑，虽然大部分行业龙头的估值都来到了历史最低看上去随时都可能大反弹，但千万不要被这种估值陷阱给迷惑住。因为你不知道底在哪里，也不知道你买的股票会不会真的崩盘。事实上，在熊市抄底做多从来都是一个输面更大的糟糕策略，在这上面，著名如格雷厄姆、利弗莫尔、费雪甚至股神巴菲特这些全球投资界巨擘都犯过非常致命的错误。所以，除非你是个非常有钱又有运气，还耐得住套牢煎熬的长期价投主义者。否则真不建议你这个时候还重仓炒A股。如果实在耐不住手痒，还不如玩一些经济周期向上的境外ETF(美国，日本，沙特，印度等市场的ETF）,或者有色/资源/能源类等ETF，这些近期的表现都还不错。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2462193685"}