友邦保险(01299)2024年中报业绩点评：NBV强势增长，OPAT三年目标超预期

国泰君安08-23 10:16

本报告导读：24H1利润符合预期，分红维持韧性，客需旺盛、代理人量质齐升及产品价值率改善共同驱动NBV较快增长，管理层提出三年量化营运利润目标超预期。投资要点：维持“增持”评级，维持目标价89.80港元/股，对应2024年P/EV为1.81倍：公司24H1归母净利润同比47.3%(实际利率)/53%(固定利率)，符合预期；税后营运利润同比3.5%(实际利率)/7%(固定利率)；24H1内含价值较上...

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expectations","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81299":0.6,"01299":1,"AAGIY":0.6},"content_text":"本报告导读：24H1利润符合预期，分红维持韧性，客需旺盛、代理人量质齐升及产品价值率改善共同驱动NBV较快增长，管理层提出三年量化营运利润目标超预期。投资要点：维持“增持”评级，维持目标价89.80港元/股，对应2024年P/EV为1.81倍：公司24H1归母净利润同比47.3%(实际利率)/53%(固定利率)，符合预期；税后营运利润同比3.5%(实际利率)/7%(固定利率)；24H1内含价值较上年末增长1.2%，主要为汇率变动和分红、回购影响。24年中期派息44.50港仙/股，同比5.2%，分红率(分红/营运利润)为50.4%，彰显经营信心。维持2024-2026年EPS为0.42/0.47/0.54美元。NBV强势增长，“中高端客户+高质量代理人+高价值率产品”策略彰显韧性。24H1公司NBV同比21%(实际汇率)/25%(固定汇率)，超出预期，Q2单季同比5.6%(实际汇率)，增速较Q1有所放缓，预计为23年同期通关带来MCV业务高基数。分区域看，1)中国香港地区NBV增速同比26%，其中本地客群与内地访客带来的NBV增长分别为28%/24%，得益于产品价值率提升以及新单较快增长。24H1新业务价值率改善8.8pt至65.7%，预计得益于升级旗舰产品、医疗险重定价等；新单同比9.2%，得益于代理人产能提升以及代理人数量增长。24H1新人增速达19%。2)中国内地NBV增速36%，其中新设分支机构NBV增速达44%，主要得益于新单增长，同比15.6%，其中新人增速26%，活跃人力增速11%，代理人产能增速8%。新业务价值率改善6.4pt至56.6%，预计为产品结构优化、定价假设调整及银保渠道费率管控共同驱动。管理层提出三年量化营运利润目标超预期。公司提出2023-2026年每股营运利润复合增速目标为9%-11%，预计将主要得益于：1)新业务盈利贡献，CSM年化增速9.1%；2)存量业务有效管理，24年上半年实现正向营运偏差；3)获得全球最低税率(BEPS2.0)，有效税率在15%-18%；4)回购有利于提升EPS。催化剂：客户需求持续旺盛；代理人招募超预期。风险提示：监管更为严苛；资本市场波动；客需持续性有限。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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