安信国际 | 同程旅行(0780.HK)：业绩符合预期；核心OTA利润率下半年有望提升

安信国际08-22

本文为安信国际近期发布的关于同程旅行(0780.HK)的动态分析报告，内容如下同程旅行2季度业绩符合预期，收入增速快于GMV增速，整体变现率提升明显。核心OTA收入同比增23%，经营利润率24.3%；度假业务贡献8.6亿收入增量。展望下半年，我们预计核心OTA业务收入稳健增长，经营利润率或随营销效率优化而提升，故维持全年净利润预测。考虑市场环境变化，下调估值倍数，目标价调整至18.8港元，维持买入...

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HK): Performance is in line with expectations; Core OTA profit margins expected to improve in the second half of the year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00780":1},"content_text":"本文为安信国际近期发布的关于同程旅行(0780.HK)的动态分析报告，内容如下同程旅行2季度业绩符合预期，收入增速快于GMV增速，整体变现率提升明显。核心OTA收入同比增23%，经营利润率24.3%；度假业务贡献8.6亿收入增量。展望下半年，我们预计核心OTA业务收入稳健增长，经营利润率或随营销效率优化而提升，故维持全年净利润预测。考虑市场环境变化，下调估值倍数，目标价调整至18.8港元，维持买入评级。主要内容2季度业绩符合预期：总收入42.5亿元，同比/环比增48%/10%，符合我们及市场预期，核心OTA业务收入同比增23%（其中交通票务/住宿预订服务同比增17%/13%），度假业务贡献收入增量8.6亿元，环比增9%，收入占比环比持平在17%。整体收入增速快于GMV增速（+4%），整体变现率提升至6.8%，对比2Q23/1Q24为4.8%/5.9%。营销/研发/行政费用占收入比同比降3.3%/3.3%/0.8%，受益于ROI导向营销策略及运营效率优化，带动经调整净利润同比增11%至6.6亿元，略高于我们/市场预期3%/4%，利润率15.5%，环比改善。拆分业务线表现，核心OTA经营利润8.5亿元，同比增13%，经营利润率为24.3%，对比2Q23/1Q24为26.6%/22.6%，度假业务盈亏平衡。核心OTA经营数据表现优于行业：1）住宿预订：整体酒店间夜量同比增10%，酒店ADR同比下降<5%，对比行业同比降幅>10%，主要因公司中低星酒店及下沉市场酒店占比更高，ADR在行业逆风中较高星酒店更具韧性。15天交叉销售率提升至12%，用户价值仍在提升。2）交通票务：整体机票预定量同比增近20%，对比民航整体/国内客运量同比增12%/6%，机票业务收入创新高。3）国际业务：国际机票预定量/酒店间夜量同比增超160%/140%，强劲增长态势延续至7-8月。用户平均花费及订单频次潜力逐步释放：截止2季度的APU为2.3亿，同比增5%，APU年度花费（APU/过去12个月GMV）为1,107元，同比增32%，维持超过2019年的水平。12个月累计服务用户18.3亿人次，隐含平均订单频次为8.1次/APU，对比去年同期为6.6次。人均花费及频次提升反映用户价值提升战略进展顺利。此外，黑鲸会员累计数超6,500万，同比/环比净增3,500万/1,000万，黑鲸会员支出约为普通用户的2.1倍。预测及估值：我们预计3季度核心OTA收入同比增19%，其中交通/住宿同比增18%/19%；预计度假业务旺季环比增31%。鉴于宏观消费疲弱，我们下调2024年收入预期5%，但预计营销效率优化将基本抵消收入层面的逆风影响，核心OTA经营利润在下半年或有提升，故维持全年经调整净利润预测（27亿元，对应净利润率15.5%）。考虑市场环境变化，给予15倍2024年市盈率（vs.此前18倍），下调目标价至18.8港元（前值：23.3港元），维持“买入”评级。我们仍看好其核心OTA业务韧性、用户价值提升、及中长期国际业务潜力。风险：消费疲弱影响旅游支出预算；ARPU水平下降；国际业务拓展不及预期。分析师：王婷Email：wangting9@essence.com.cn","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2461338208"}