狂欢继续：华尔街看好“七巨头”14%的潜在回报

金十数据08-16

华尔街分析师预测，这七大科技巨头的股票仍有望在未来一年实现两位数的回报，尽管已经大幅上涨。很多投资者都在为高歌猛进的“七巨头”担心。华尔街股市分析师却不这么看。事实上，他们预测新一轮两位数的回报指日可待。虽然投资者持怀疑态度是正确的，但即使对不了解情况的指数投资者来说，看涨的前景也是个好消息。对于热门的大型科技股来说，这已经是一个很好的时期了。追踪这些股票表现的...

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Platforms(META.O)的股价上涨了50%。只有特斯拉(TSLA.O)面临需求放缓和竞争加剧，股价下跌14%。“七巨头”的大获成功让一些人担心，这些股票涨得太快了。FactSet的数据显示，即使考虑到超高的盈利增长，这些股票明年的利润也只有31倍，而标准普尔500指数整体只有21倍。而且，这些股票的市值巨大，意味着它们占了指数的很大一部分，约30%。这导致一些投资者担心市场头重脚轻，甚至出现泡沫。华尔街的股票分析师们显然对此并不担心。根据DataTrekResearch最近对12个月目标股价的分析，他们平均认为“七巨头”股票的近期上涨空间为14.4%，而标准普尔500指数的上涨空间仅为11.9%。华尔街预计亚马逊(AMZN.O)的涨幅最大，接近29%，其次是Alphabet(GOOGL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)，均为20%左右，英伟达为18%。亚马逊目前股价远低于其平均目标价的原因之一是：本月早些时候，这家在线零售巨头未能达到季度销售预期，股价下跌超过9%。不过，亚马逊本季度的业绩并没有全军覆没。该公司公布的利润好于预期，其关键的云计算业务增长了近20%。因此，大多数分析师对这一消息不以为然：根据FactSet的数据，该公司的平均目标价从225美元降至219美元，降幅仅约3%。威廉·布莱尔公司（WilliamBlair）分析师迪伦·卡登（DylanCarden）和阿俊·巴蒂亚（ArjunBhatia）在财报发布后的一份说明中写道：“我们仍然认为，这里的发展前景更长远”。他们重申了“跑赢大盘”的评级。华尔街并没有说“七巨头”里每一只股票都会表现出色。分析师预计，Meta和苹果(AAPL.O)将落后于标准普尔500指数，回报率均在6%左右，而特斯拉股价预计将停滞不前，其当前价格或多或少与平均目标价相符。但值得注意的是，如果将特斯拉排除在外，华尔街对“七巨头”的看好程度更高。根据DataTrek的数据，分析师预计其余六家公司在未来12个月的回报率将接近17%。这些股票真的能继续超越竞争对手吗？DataTrak联合创始人杰西卡·拉贝（JessicaRabe）指出：“我们对分析师的目标价格持谨慎态度（你也应该如此）。”华尔街所谓的卖方分析师是出了名的看涨派，尤其是在涉及高知名度的科技股时。部分原因是华尔街大公司希望从其分析师覆盖的公司中赢得投资银行业务。但也因为华尔街总体上是一个看涨的地方：乐观情绪和上涨的价格会鼓励客户进行更多股票交易。事实上，一位知名市场策略师Marko Kolanovic，最近因为在摩根大通持续看空时间过长而失去工作。尽管如此，正如DataTrek的拉贝所指出的，即使是对华尔街最持怀疑态度的被动投资者也应该为看涨预测欢呼雀跃。如果读者只持有先锋500指数基金，那么他也有30%的资金投资于“七巨头”指数。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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