周一低开后走高，美股调整到位了吗？

华尔街见闻08-06

昨日暴跌后美股来到关键拐点，最糟糕的抛售时期是否已经过去？同时，鉴于近几个月科技股走势，投资者面临两难的境地：是花大价钱购买高市盈率的科技巨头股票，还是等待更便宜的切入点但冒着错过今年最大牛市的风险。 Janney Montgomery Scott 技术策略师兼研究副总监Dan Wantrobski表示：目前市场已经超卖到一定程度，股价可能很快反弹，但痛苦还没有结束。在股价回升至历史高点之前...

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Has the U.S. stock market adjusted in place?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TRIN":1,"RSI":1},"content_text":"昨日暴跌后美股来到关键拐点，最糟糕的抛售时期是否已经过去？\n同时，鉴于近几个月科技股走势，投资者面临两难的境地：是花大价钱购买高市盈率的科技巨头股票，还是等待更便宜的切入点但冒着错过今年最大牛市的风险。\nJanney Montgomery Scott 技术策略师兼研究副总监Dan Wantrobski表示：\n\n目前市场已经超卖到一定程度，股价可能很快反弹，但痛苦还没有结束。在股价回升至历史高点之前，还有很多关键指标需要克服。\n\n至于科技股，虽然此次抛售导致估值全面下跌，但远未达到便宜水平。\n六大指标看美股调整到位了吗？\n当前美国股市正处于关键的技术位置，多项指标暗示市场可能接近短期底部，然而整体趋势仍然偏向下行。\n\n\n\n标普500指数\n\n\n短期展望：短期可能反弹至100日移动平均线上方(约5300点)；\n\n\n中期风险：中期或再次下探至200日移动平均线附近(约5000点)；\n\n\n关键支撑：使用斐波那契回撤分析，38.2%的回撤位在4838点，这是一个重要的技术支撑位；\n\n\n值得一提的是，指数曾在7月底交易价格高于200日移动平均线15%，这种极端情况历史上往往预示着回调。\n\n\n\n\n纳斯达克100指数\n\n\n关键突破：周一一短暂跌破200日移动平均线(17657点)，为去年3月以来首次；\n\n\n当前位置：收盘于17895点，200日均线成为近期的重要支撑位。\n\n\n\n\n相对强弱指标（RSI）\n\n\nS&P 500和纳斯达克100的14日RSI均接近30，低于30通常被认为是超卖区域，常伴随着短期反弹。\n\n\n\n\n阿姆氏指标（TRIN）\n\n\n周一收于1.02，低于0.5表示买盘强劲，高于2.0意味着卖盘占优。1.02的读数显示市场仍存在一定抛售压力，尚未达到极端超卖状态。\n\n\n\n\n纽交所个股表现\n\n\n当前状况：45%的股票位于50日移动平均线之上。\n\n\n市场底部信号：分析师Todd Sohn认为，这一比例需要降至20%左右才能确认抛售结束。\n\n\n启示：广度指标表明，目前的下跌还未达到典型的市场底部特征。\n\n\n\n\nVIX波动率指数\n\n\n周一一度飙升至65.73，创2020年3月以来新高。只要美国经济避免衰退，VIX大幅波动可能带来强劲的回报。\n\n\n\n\n\n科技股跌到白菜价了吗？\n市场对美国经济的衰退和人工智能巨额资金的投入日益担忧，特斯拉、亚马逊财报不及预期，三大指齐跌，伯克希尔大幅减持苹果……美国股市阴云笼罩，纳斯达克100指数暴跌5.5%，一些人以比几天前大幅折价的价格买入了苹果和英伟达的股票，但许多人仍在等待时机，他们并不相信抛售已经结束。\n虽然此次抛售导致估值全面下跌，但远未达到便宜水平。根据媒体汇编的数据：\n\n纳斯达克100指数的市盈率为未来12个月预期利润的24倍，虽然这一数字低于一个月前的28 倍，但仍高于该基准指数的10年平均水平，接近22倍。\n英伟达的市盈率为31倍，而苹果和微软的市盈率约为29倍。\n\nGabelli Funds 投资组合经理John Belton表示：\n\n估值不算特别便宜，但还是可以接受的，许多大型科技公司都表现出强劲的增长势头，利润率不断扩大，盈利增长高于平均水平。它们仍然值得获得相当健康的市盈率，尤其是如果我们进入一个更加正常化的利率环境。\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2457955054"}