【热点分析】美债收益率曲线倒挂即将逆转，经济衰退前景尚无定论；①美国国债收益率曲线倒挂可能接近尾声。此次倒挂是历史上持续时间最长、程度最深的，是经济衰退即将到来的关键债市信号。

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【热点分析】美债收益率曲线倒挂即将逆转，经济衰退前景尚无定论； ①美国国债收益率曲线倒挂可能接近尾声。此次倒挂是历史上持续时间最长、程度最深的，是经济衰退即将到来的关键债市信号。 ②虽然收益率曲线倒挂通常预示着经济衰退，但这次人们对该指标的预测能力存在争议，乐观地认为美国可以避免长期的经济困境。最近几周的一些指标显示经济放缓，但经济增长依然强劲，因劳动力市场韧性十足。 ③Osaic首席市场...

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This inversion is a continuous one in history","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":1,"TWEB":1,"SPY":1,"UFIV":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"LPL":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"ZTmain":1,"ZNmain":1,"ZFmain":1,"ZBmain":1,"UBmain":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"DB":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1,"USVN":1,"UTHY":1,"UTRE":1,"0H7D.UK":1,"UTWY":1,"OEX":0.6,"US912797GK78.BOND":0.6,"US912797GL51.BOND":0.6,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"09141":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6},"content_text":"【热点分析】美债收益率曲线倒挂即将逆转，经济衰退前景尚无定论；\r\n①美国国债收益率曲线倒挂可能接近尾声。此次倒挂是历史上持续时间最长、程度最深的，是经济衰退即将到来的关键债市信号。\r\n②虽然收益率曲线倒挂通常预示着经济衰退，但这次人们对该指标的预测能力存在争议，乐观地认为美国可以避免长期的经济困境。最近几周的一些指标显示经济放缓，但经济增长依然强劲，因劳动力市场韧性十足。\r\n③Osaic首席市场策略师 Phil Blancato 表示：“我并不认为现在出现了经济衰退，我认为这次的情况很不一样。”\r\n④投资者关注美国国债收益率曲线的形状，因为它揭示了市场对货币政策和经济的预期。德意志银行的数据显示，在过去 70 年中，收益率曲线倒挂（短期债券收益率高于长期债券收益率）在 10 次中有 九 次是经济衰退的先兆。\r\n⑤去年几家华尔街公司曾预计，由于借贷成本上升，美国经济将陷入衰退，但持续的经济韧性却让这些预测落空。路透本月调查的经济学家预计，美国经济将在未来两年继续扩张。路透今年早些时候调查的大多数债券策略师表示，该曲线不再是可靠的衰退信号。\r\n⑥LPL Financial 首席固定收益策略师 Lawrence Gillum 表示：“有些指标可能并不像数据显示的那样完美，这就是其中之一。目前，收益率曲线倒挂程度减轻并不是因为经济衰退，而只是回归正常的向上倾斜的收益率曲线。”\r\n⑦两年期和10年期国债收益率曲线自 2022 年 7 月初以来持续倒挂，超过了 1978 年创下的纪录。此次倒挂是在美联储为抑制通胀于 2022 年 3 月开始加息周期之后发生的。\r\n⑧最近几周，在经济降温迹象下，这条曲线US2US10=TWEB趋于陡峭——这意味着两年期收益率与10年期收益率之差已经缩小。Tradeweb 数据显示，周三收益率之差触及负 14.5 个基点，倒挂程度为 2022 年 7 月以来最小。截止上周五，收益率之差为负 18.5个基点。\r\n⑨收益率之差通常会转为正值，因为经济放缓导致市场预期美联储将降息，从而导致短期债券的涨幅超过长期债券。在经济仅出现适度放缓迹象的情况下，收益率曲线倒挂程度可能减轻，现在就是这样，但一些分析师警告称，近期收益率曲线的表现说明，经济仍有可能萎缩","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2455250106"}