美股“大轮动”还能持续多久？可能由这三件事说了算！

金十数据07-25

板块轮动令美股发生了翻天覆地的变化，但这一趋势是否会持续下去？还是说，大科技公司重新占据主导地位只是时间问题？本月早些时候，英伟达公司（NVDA）及其他大型股突然回落，而小型股、对利率敏感的防御性股票以及金融等价值型股票则反弹。小型股罗素2000指数（RUT）、中型股标普中型股400指数（MID）和以价值股为主导的道指（DJIA）等指数最近超过标普500指数（SPX）和纳斯达克综合指数（...

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It may be up to these three things to have the final say!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MID":1,"DJIA":1,"SPY":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,".DJI":0.65,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"板块轮动令美股发生了翻天覆地的变化，但这一趋势是否会持续下去？还是说，大科技公司重新占据主导地位只是时间问题？\n本月早些时候，英伟达公司（NVDA）及其他大型股突然回落，而小型股、对利率敏感的防御性股票以及金融等价值型股票则反弹。\n\n小型股罗素2000指数（RUT）、中型股标普中型股400指数（MID）和以价值股为主导的道指（DJIA）等指数最近超过标普500指数（SPX）和纳斯达克综合指数（IXIC）的幅度创下了多年来的最大水平，人们将这种现象称为“大轮动”。\n\n此后，这种情况在一定程度上一直持续。据道琼斯市场数据显示，截至本周二，罗素2000指数的表现比标普500指数高出10.8个百分点，创下了有记录以来表现最好的10天。\nMarketWatch询问了一些市场专业人士，以了解他们正在关注什么，并确定最近“大轮换”中的受益者能否守住近期的涨幅，甚至走得更高。\n以下是他们认为投资者应该牢记的几件事。\n美联储降息\n进入夏季后，市场主导权转移的时机已经成熟：大型股看起来很贵。而小型股、中型股和价值股则显得便宜。\n但Glenmede投资战略副总裁Mike Reynolds认为，真正的轮换还需要一个催化剂。在7月11日发布6月份CPI报告后，投资者调高了对美联储明年降息次数的预期，催化剂终于来了。\n根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的数据，交易员们现在认为到2025年8月很有可能会有多达六次降息。\n美联储是否真的会进行如此多次的降息，可能会对小型股在今年年底的走势产生深远影响。然而，这不仅仅是降息次数的问题。美联储为何降息也很重要。\n\nReynolds周二在接受采访时说：“美联储降息的原因很重要。如果美联储是因为看到经济疲软而需要开始降息，那么，小型股对经济更为敏感。”\n企业盈利\n对小型股盈利增长的预期一直在升温，至少对标普小型股600指数中质量较高的成份股而言是如此。\n据美国银行全球研究公司称，该指数中股票的同比盈利增长速度将在今年晚些时候开始超过大型股。这一趋势将持续到2025年。如果没有这种乐观情绪，小型股很可能无法保持积极势头。\n\n美银预计小型股盈利增长超过大型股的趋势将持续至2025年\n\nComerica Wealth Management首席投资官John Lynch在接受采访时说：“要想让这个市场真正呈现出非周期后期的任何迹象，我们真的需要看到周期股、价值股和小型股证实盈利增长正在扩大。”\n但是，从现在到那时，“大轮动”可能会出现很多问题。如果“七巨头”中的科技股和相关股票在最新一批财报中给投资者留下深刻印象，就会吸引投资者重回大型股的怀抱。另一方面，如果达不到华尔街分析师所说的高标准，可能会加剧抛售。\n科技行业的收益是否足以重拾投资者的信心？\n瑞银全球财富管理（UBS Global Wealth Management）美洲资产配置主管Jason Draho在接受采访时说：“投资者将关注财报的结果，以及它们与预期相比的表现。”\n特朗普交易\n许多受益于轮动的股票也被卷入了“特朗普交易”。\n策略师们表示，未来特朗普政府的政策似乎将有利于规模较小、更加专注于国内市场的公司。\nLynch认为，与此同时，特朗普对大型科技公司咄咄逼人的言辞，加上他的贸易保护主义议程，可能会进一步损害许多受益于人工智能热潮的股票。\nReynolds说，新一届民主党候选人的政策立场尚不得而知，这又增加了一层不确定性。\n归根结底，这可能取决于国会的控制权。NorthEnd Private Wealth首席投资官Alex McGrath认为，分裂的国会将有利于维持现状。\nMcGrath周二在接受采访时说：“对我们来说，这是所有这一切中最大的未知因素。”\n周三，由于科技股下滑，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均受到拖累，“大轮换”的受益者似乎有望继续跑赢大盘。道指和罗素2000指数均下跌，但跌幅不大。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2454846026"}