办一次奥运会，对法国经济有多大帮助？

华尔街见闻07-26

2024年巴黎奥运会距离开幕不到12个小时。对于这场举世瞩目的运动盛宴，华尔街大行摩根大通算了一笔经济账。摩根大通最新研报显示，奥运会对法国经济的提振可能是短暂的，三季度GPD同比增速或提升1个百分点至2.25%，但随后在四季度回落至正常水平。奥运会对法国通胀的影响很可能也微不足道。建筑、服务业得到提振，三季度GDP增速或提升1个百分点摩根大通分析师Raphael Brun-Aguerre...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3721309><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2024年巴黎奥运会距离开幕不到12个小时。对于这场举世瞩目的运动盛宴，华尔街大行摩根大通算了一笔经济账。\n摩根大通最新研报显示，奥运会对法国经济的提振可能是短暂的，三季度GPD同比增速或提升1个百分点至2.25%，但随后在四季度回落至正常水平。奥运会对法国通胀的影响很可能也微不足道。\n建筑、服务业得到提振，三季度GDP增速或提升1个百分点\n摩根大通分析师Raphael Brun-Aguerre...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3721309\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1496350502.SGD","symbol_name":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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Brun-Aguerre本周稍早前发布研报称，奥运会对法国经济的直接影响将主要体现在第三季度。预计在赛事期间，三季度GPD同比增速将提升1个百分点。\n这一增长主要得益于建筑和基础设施支出的增加，以及旅游、交通、酒店、餐饮和票务等服务业的显著提振。\n然而，考虑到巴黎本身已是旅游热点，奥运会期间部分游客可能会选择其他目的地以避免拥挤，这种增长效应可能会有所抵消。\n为了更准确地评估奥运会对法国经济的影响，摩根大通借鉴了2012年伦敦奥运会的经验。\n当时，英国三季度GDP增长率达到了3.9%，其中奥运会贡献了1.2个百分点。不过，这一增长还受到了女王登基纪念额外银行假期的推动。在随后的四季度，英国GDP同比增速回落了0.4个百分点。\n\n英国PMI指数传达了同样的信息，该指数在夏季上升并在10月回落到奥运会前的水平。\n对于法国，摩根大通进行了更为谨慎的假设：\n\n奥运会将在三季度为法国GDP带来1%的提振，随后在下一季度带来1.0个百分点的拖累，因为经济活动恢复正常。\n\n将奥运会的因素纳入考虑后，摩根大通预计，法国三季度GDP同比增速为2.25%，随后在四季度回落至1%的正常水平。\n对通胀的影响可以忽略不计？\n尽管奥运会期间服务业需求激增，但摩根大通研报指出，其对通胀的影响可能是微不足道的。\n以2012年伦敦奥运会为例，英国服务业通胀总体并未在赛事前后出现明显上升，这可能是因为奥运期间的旅游需求增加被非奥运间旅游需求的减少所抵消。\n此外，今年6-7月2024年欧洲足球杯期间，东道主德国的服务通胀总体上并未受到显著影响。\n\n值得注意的是，摩根大通指出，近期的政治不确定性可能会对投资产生影响，从而对经济增长造成一定拖累。因此，即将发布的7月PMI初步估计将成为观察经济活动的重要指标。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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