基本面不重要了？大摩：相比电动车，投资者更关心特斯拉的“AI叙事”

华尔街见闻07-22 21:55

马斯克此前多次提到，特斯拉是一家人工智能+机器人公司，而不仅仅是一家汽车公司。当下，随着电动车业务下滑成为共识，投资者将更多注意力转移到特斯拉的“AI叙事”上。上周末，Adam Jonas等摩根士丹利分析师发布了一份特斯拉投资者调查报告。结果显示，68%的投资者把AI视为特斯拉未来一年股价的主要驱动力，仅有33%倾向于电动车。报告还指出，投资者对特斯拉未来12个月的股价表现看法几乎“均等分布”...

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Morgan Stanley: Investors are more concerned about Tesla's \"AI narrative\" than electric vehicles","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1},"content_text":"马斯克此前多次提到，特斯拉是一家人工智能+机器人公司，而不仅仅是一家汽车公司。当下，随着电动车业务下滑成为共识，投资者将更多注意力转移到特斯拉的“AI叙事”上。\n上周末，Adam Jonas等摩根士丹利分析师发布了一份特斯拉投资者调查报告。结果显示，68%的投资者把AI视为特斯拉未来一年股价的主要驱动力，仅有33%倾向于电动车。\n报告还指出，投资者对特斯拉未来12个月的股价表现看法几乎“均等分布”，凸显市场对该公司前景的不确定性。\n\n这项调查于7月17日发出，24小时内收集了137份回复。尽管样本量有限，但仍反映出投资者情绪的显著转变。\n值得注意的是，大摩还指出，现在是时候考虑特斯拉的“宏图计划第四篇章”了。\n大摩上月发布报告称，预计第四篇章将由人工智能、机器人、混合计算技术支撑，把特斯拉与马斯克的其他事业（包括SpaceX、Starlink、X和xAI）联系起来，投资者应该为之做好准备。\n他们认为，这一新计划的意义可能会因美国大选结果而发生变化。此前普遍预期，特朗普重返白宫之后，美国政府会出台一系列的经济刺激政策，利好特斯拉等美国本土企业。但拜登退选后，大选的风向开始发生变化。\n尽管如此，摩根士丹利仍然保持对特斯拉的乐观态度，并给出了310美元的目标价，较当前价高出26%。这一估值综合考虑了特斯拉的汽车业务、移动出行等多个业务板块。具体来看：\n\n\n核心汽车业务: 56美元/股\n特斯拉移动出行: 61美元/股\n第三方供应商业务: 40美元/股\n能源业务: 50美元/股\n保险业务: 5美元/股\n网络服务: 97美元/股\n\n\n这份报告也暗示，投资者对特斯拉的估值逻辑正在发生转变——从传统的电动车制造商向科技公司靠拢。但摩根士丹利提醒，这种转变也带来了新的不确定性，特别是如果市场未能充分认识到特斯拉AI相关业务的潜力。\n特斯拉将于当地时间7月23日周二美股盘后公布Q2财报。华尔街预计，特斯拉Q2营收同比微降，每股收益同比下滑约30%。考虑到特斯拉的销售增长趋于平缓，目前市场预计其今年业绩“不会很理想”。届时，市场将重点关注平价版车型Model 2的最新消息、Robotaxi发布时间和FSD技术采用率等。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2453930247"}