商贸零售行业周报：Q3海外零售步入旺季亚马逊会员日销售同增11%

德邦证券股份有...07-22 00:00

本周专题：Q3 海外零售步入旺季，亚马逊会员日销售同增11%。一、亚马逊会员日收官，机构统计24 年销售额同增11%。24 年会员日收官：Prime Day 作为亚马逊官方重要促销节日，2015 年首届开办至今已有10 年，2024 年亚马逊会员日在7 月16-17 日举办，涵盖美国、英国、澳大利亚等24 个国家和地区。（a）整体表现：根据Adobe 预测，会员日期间亚马逊销售额预计达到142 ...

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模式的头部跨境卖家影响预计相对有限。我们核心看好北美市场依赖度相对较低、海外仓铺设较早、海外供应链已有布局的品牌型卖家。本周回顾：重点公司公告：1）泡泡玛特：发布正面盈利预告，预期24 年H1 收入增长不低于55%，溢利增长不低于90%。2）赛维时代：预告业绩增长强劲，公司盈利同比增长。3）焦点科技：发布业绩快报，24 年H1 实现营业总收入7.94亿元，同比增长7.4%。4）苏美达：发布24 年H1 业绩快报，归母净利润同增12%等；行业新闻方面：1）胖东来调改永辉超市，郑州瀚海海尚店已经实现全员加薪。2）国家统计局数据发布，1-6 月社零同比增长3.7%，6 月份社零同比增长2.0%。投资建议：我们在2024 年7 月4 日外发的行业季度报告《结构性分化，布局中报寻找α——美妆&零售板块Q2 总结及Q3 策略》中提到，二季度社零低预期+地产恢复弱+茅台批价下跌，消费板块风偏下降，消费板块跑输大盘，但仍存在结构性行情，化妆品超额收益明显、龙头公司618 延续高增长，出海板块持续回升，自下而上选股龙头超额收益突出。我们预估Q3 宏观消费仍旧偏弱，且三季度多个板块均为淡季，预估板块β超额收益较弱，且7-8 月逐步迎来中报兑现期，把握绩优公司的个股性机会。（1）巨子生物：618 大促双品牌表现亮眼，明星单品增量明显，化妆品平台型逻辑逐步兑现，储备多款胶原注射产品，上调24-26 年净利润至18.94亿/24.22 亿/30.10 亿，估值回调至19.8X/15.5X/12.4X PE。（2）名创优品：预估国内同店逐步恢复，海外展店顺利推进，wind 一致预期24-26 年净利润为26.1 亿/32.4 亿/39.5 亿，估值回落至14.8X/11.9X/9.8X，建议重点关注。（3）时代天使：儿童型产品及下沉市场渠道覆盖深耕中国市场，海外通过产品性价比+医生服务+及时交付有望抢占市场份额，预估高成长潜力。（4）乖宝宠物：宠物食品龙头企业，产品研发、渠道运营、多品牌打造领先，激励计划提振信心。（5）赛维时代：半年报归母同增52%-65%、板块景气度高，Q3 开始进入海外零售旺季，wind 一致预期24-26 年净利润为4.56 亿/5.63 亿/6.53 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商贸零售行业周报：Q3海外零售步入旺季 亚马逊会员日销售同增11%

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商贸零售行业周报：Q3海外零售步入旺季亚马逊会员日销售同增11%