股市动荡：夏季反弹能否在科技巨头缺席下持续？

金十数据07-22

在投资者抛售标普500指数中占主导地位的大型科技股，转而投资股市其他领域后，美国股市在近期超越大科技股的反弹后摇摆不定，波动性上升。标普500指数在周五连续第三天下跌，收于7月初以来的最低点。据道琼斯市场数据，7月11日发布的低于预期的通胀报告后，资金流入利率敏感型股票加速，这使得投资者信心增强，预计美联储可能在9月开始降息，从而推动小盘股以及金融、房地产、公用事业、工业和材料等板块的轮动。 ...

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Platforms(META.O)的RoundhillMagnificentSevenETF上周累跌4.8%。\n富国银行投资研究所高级全球市场策略师斯科特·沃伦（ScottWren）在电话中表示，他对美国大盘股持比重偏高的态度，认为近期小盘股的轮动是暂时的。他说：“我们仍然低配小盘股。”在他看来，现在转向小盘股还为时过早，因为经济仍在放缓，他认为这将是“软着陆”。Wren说：“我不认为经济会衰退，但经济会放缓。”\n本周，美国经济分析局（BureauofEconomicAnalysis）将于7月25日公布美国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）预估数据，届时投资者将了解美国第二季度经济增长情况。美联储首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数将于7月26日公布。\n高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管林赛·罗斯纳（LindsayRosner）通过电话表示，通胀已经“正常化”，而劳动力市场正在“降温”。她说：“我们认为，美联储极有可能在9月份下调基准利率。”\n与此同时，美国股市的波动性在过去一周大幅上升。\nFactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）波动率指数VIX周五升至16.52，本周累计上涨32.6%。这是自2023年3月以来的最大单周涨幅。\n尽管如此，被称为股市“恐惧指数”的CboeVolatility指数上周五收盘仍低于约20的长期平均水平。\n罗斯纳认为，围绕美国总统大选的不确定性也可能激起一些投资者的焦虑，因为在评估股票和债券估值时需要考虑获胜者的政策。\n进入周末后，拜登总统是否会成为11月大选的民主党候选人的问题仍在萦绕。周日，拜登宣布退出白宫竞选，并在X上发表文章称，他支持副总统哈里斯成为民主党总统候选人。罗斯纳说：“现在是在投资组合中持有债券的好时机，”他指出了相对较高的收益率这一“礼物”，以及固定收益在抵御波动方面可能发挥的作用。\n标准普尔500指数上周五收于5,505点，今年迄今为止仍上涨了15.4%。道琼斯市场数据显示，这比7月16日的历史最高收盘价低2.9%。\n该指数已从10月27日的52周低点反弹了33.7%。在经历了如此牛市之后，标准普尔500指数“必然会回吐”一些涨幅，沃伦说。\n沃伦表示，股市平均每10个半月左右就会出现10%的回调。他解释说，标准普尔500指数从10月份的低点反弹以来，还没有出现过10%的回落。\n投资者正在“喘口气，评估一下我们所处的位置，”罗斯纳说。“软着陆的说法非常流行\"。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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