招商银行(600036)降费符合行业趋势，选择当前时点边际影响较小

中金公司07-22

公司近况近日招商银行举办2024年财富合作伙伴论坛，王良行长在开幕致辞中提出“将实施零售代销公募基金买入费率全面一折起的优惠政策”。评论我们测算此次费率打折对招行全年营收的拖累或不超过0.2%。我们认为买入费率一折优惠或主要针对申购存量基金份额，而不包括认购重点首发基金。使用2023年数据进行测算，招行代销公募基金流量费率约为0.3%，限于数据可得性，我们粗略假设认申购费率全面一折，则打折后的...

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举办2024年财富合作伙伴论坛，王良行长在开幕致辞中提出“将实施零售代销公募基金买入费率全面一折起的优惠政策”。评论我们测算此次费率打折对招行全年营收的拖累或不超过0.2%。我们认为买入费率一折优惠或主要针对申购存量基金份额，而不包括认购重点首发基金。使用2023年数据进行测算，招行代销公募基金流量费率约为0.3%，限于数据可得性，我们粗略假设认申购费率全面一折，则打折后的流量费率约为0.08%-0.15%，静态测算对收入的拖累为6-8亿元，占营收的0.17%-0.24%、净利润的0.4%-0.5%。此外，存款利率下行提高了财富产品的吸引力，或将带来2024年基金销售额的增长，对冲费率打折的影响。降费符合行业趋势，当前时点主动降费或是边际冲击较小的选择，我们认为中长期来看，拉平与独立代销机构的费率水平，可能吸引更多费率敏感客户：1、线上交易量的提升使原先差异化费率体系的意义减弱，尾部客户收归总行直营或将加速这一进程，此外，客户经理产能释放亦将一定程度对冲降费影响。招行2020年开始逐步对部分基金买入费率实施一折优惠、打造 线上线下 差异化费率体系，主要在于线下客户经理的服务成本较高。但随着公司积极推进数字化转型，线上经营客户数和交易量占比提升，2024年上半年公司将20万元AUM以下的客户收归总行线上直营，推出更多便捷支付、社保公积金查询等功能，完善高频金融场景，我们判断这些举措将继续提升线上渠道的交易贡献，即使维持此前的差异化费率体系，享受一折的客户占比亦将逐步提升。2)尾部客户总行直营后，客户经理可以获得更多高价值户，户均AUM的提升以及精细化经营带来的交易量增长或将对冲费率打折的影响。2、当前时点基金销售额和销售收入处于相对低点，收入结构上存量收入占比高、流量收入占比低，产品结构上亦是低费率产品占比高，故当前实施费率折扣的边际影响小于市场热度高点时期。示范效应或加速行业基金流量费率下行，倒逼买方投顾转型(正文延续…)。盈利预测与估值维持盈利预测、估值与跑赢行业评级不变。当前A股、H股交易于0.8x/0.8x、0.8x/0.7x2024E/2025EP/B。维持A、H目标价38.99元(1.0x/0.9x2024E/2025EP/B及13.8%上行空间)、35.35港元(对应0.9x/0.9x2024E/2025EP/B及4.4%上行空间)。风险宏观经济、资本市场修复、居民风险偏好修复进度不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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