美股科技见顶了吗？

市场投研资讯07-23

最近美股那边不算太平，之前坚不可摧的“科技七巨头”开始频繁调整，把不少“相信xx，定投xx”的朋友也搞懵了。这一场调整风波的的起因，要从前两周公布的美国6月通胀数据说起。7月11日，美国公布的6月通胀数据超预期降温，整体CPI的环比增速是四年来头次转负，而核心CPI的同比增速也是创下三年来最低。这消息一出来，市场都觉得美联储9月份铁定要降息了，而且今年至少会降两次。开盘后，大型科技股迅速跳水，转而...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-07-23/doc-incfchwv7843156.shtml><strong>市场投研资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近美股那边不算太平，之前坚不可摧的“科技七巨头”开始频繁调整，把不少“相信xx，定投xx”的朋友也搞懵了。这一场调整风波的的起因，要从前两周公布的美国6月通胀数据说起。7月11日，美国公布的6月通胀数据超预期降温，整体CPI的环比增速是四年来头次转负，而核心CPI的同比增速也是创下三年来最低。这消息一出来，市场都觉得美联储9月份铁定要降息了，而且今年至少会降两次。开盘后，大型科技股迅速跳水，转而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-07-23/doc-incfchwv7843156.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BJJMRX11.SGD","symbol_name":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-07-23/doc-incfchwv7843156.shtml","article_id":"2453089839","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-07-23/doc-incfchwv7843156.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, 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peaked?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"03086":0.9,"TSM":0.8,"AMAT":0.7,"AMD":0.7,"SOXX":0.7,"NVDA":0.7,"03145":0.6,"03165":0.6},"content_text":"最近美股那边不算太平，之前坚不可摧的“科技七巨头”开始频繁调整，把不少“相信xx，定投xx”的朋友也搞懵了。这一场调整风波的的起因，要从前两周公布的美国6月通胀数据说起。7月11日，美国公布的6月通胀数据超预期降温，整体CPI的环比增速是四年来头次转负，而核心CPI的同比增速也是创下三年来最低。这消息一出来，市场都觉得美联储9月份铁定要降息了，而且今年至少会降两次。开盘后，大型科技股迅速跳水，转而像金融、地产以及小盘股这些对利率特别敏感的资产开始上涨。原因也很简单，对于美股大科技公司来说，他们对利率和环境相对没那么敏感，所以在之前也被当作“避险资产”来看待，就像我们大A的红利股。但现在，降息的前景越来越明朗，这种“避险”的需求就没那么强烈了。所以，不少资金开始从这些大科技公司撤出来，转而投向那些可能会因为降息而受益更多的周期性行业和中小盘股。在之后，一些催化剂继续火上浇油。光刻机巨头阿斯麦三季度的业绩指引不及预期。光刻机巨头ASML在7月17日，预计自己三季度的销售额可能在67亿到73亿欧元之间，这跟外界预测的74.6亿欧元差得有点远。也在公布消息的当天，asml股价就狂跌了12%以上。ASML在光刻机这块是老大，他们怎么说，对整个半导体行业影响还是不小的。所以，他们对三季度的预测没达到大家的期望，就让市场开始担心，是不是AI这股热潮要开始降温了？对半导体的需求会不会也跟着减少？此外，还包括最近美国限制芯片出口的消息，以及微软“蓝屏”事件7月17日，彭博爆出，美国告知盟友，如果东电电子和阿斯麦这些公司继续给中国提供先进半导体技术，美国将采取最严厉的贸易限制措施。这消息一出来，当天费城半导体指数一下就跌了6.8%。个股里，阿斯麦跌得最惨，12%以上（也包含业绩指引当天不及预期的原因），其他像应用材料、AMD、迈威尔科技、拉姆研究等，股价也都跌了超过10%，英伟达也跌了6.6%。到了7月19号，微软的“蓝屏”事件又给科技股加了一把火。美国的安全软件巨头CrowdStrike因为软件更新出了问题，搞出了个“史上最大IT故障”。以至于科技股当天的调整更厉害了，CrowdStrike的股价跌了超过11%，英特尔、特斯拉、台积电、阿斯麦这些公司的股价也都跌了超过3%。不过，市场上有观点认为，最近这波美股科技股的调整，其实更像是把之前太集中的风险给释放了一下，并不是说科技股的好日子就到头了，或者说AI泡沫的破裂。原因主要包括以下几个：首先，从台积电的今年二季度财报来看，全球AI芯片需求还是非常旺盛的。总营收达到了1504.62亿元，同比涨了40.1%；净利润553.7亿元，同比涨了36.3%；毛利率达53.20%，显著高于预期。根据相关消息爆料，苹果、高通、英伟达与AMD几乎已经包下台积电大量的3纳米制程产能，导致现在订单甚至已经排到了2026年。此外，除非是美国经济真的不行了，否则即使未来即使降息了，从历史的降息周期数据统计来看，纳斯达克科技股平均涨幅也是不错的。但部分观点也认为，美股科技股现在已经是强弩之末。比如，润州这家私募，目前对于这轮科技股态度已经从去年的偏正面开始逐步转向谨慎。他们认为，这轮的科技周期启动以OPENAI的GPT横空出世作为起点，催生了需求侧的爆发性发展。但是在经历了18月的发展以后，站在现在节点，确实没有看到显著的新杀手级应用能够进一步承接需求。所以现在对于科技股会持谨慎态度，逐步缩小头寸比例，将风险控制的优先级上提。持类似观点的还有仁桥，他们觉得，应用端来看，无论是微软的Copilot，还是三星的AI手机，都还没有展示出对现实世界的改变和不可逆的影响，没有场景的支撑，算力的逻辑也难以为继。美股科技接下来究竟如何演绎谁都无法预知，但要时刻敬畏头顶上的达摩克利斯之剑。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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