高盛“打脸”摩根大通：萝卜快跑2025年就能盈利！

华尔街见闻07-17

布局11年，萝卜快跑终于在这个夏天秀了把肌肉。如今连华尔街各大行都在为它“打擂台”，争论它在武汉的初步成功是否能代表可以异地复制，最终剑指出租车行业？16日，高盛在最新研报中对萝卜快跑的发展前景表示看好。分析认为，随着无人驾驶车队的扩大，萝卜快跑最早在2025年就能实现盈利。当然也不是所有机构都如此乐观。摩根大通此前曾表示，无人驾驶出租车行情为时过早而且基本面并不合理，并预测未来12个月，无人驾驶...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3719835><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>布局11年，萝卜快跑终于在这个夏天秀了把肌肉。如今连华尔街各大行都在为它“打擂台”，争论它在武汉的初步成功是否能代表可以异地复制，最终剑指出租车行业？16日，高盛在最新研报中对萝卜快跑的发展前景表示看好。分析认为，随着无人驾驶车队的扩大，萝卜快跑最早在2025年就能实现盈利。当然也不是所有机构都如此乐观。摩根大通此前曾表示，无人驾驶出租车行情为时过早而且基本面并不合理，并预测未来12个月，无人驾驶...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3719835\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0417517546.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc 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2025!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.6,"09888":1,"JPM":1,"BIDU":0.6,"LU":0.6},"content_text":"布局11年，萝卜快跑终于在这个夏天秀了把肌肉。如今连华尔街各大行都在为它“打擂台”，争论它在武汉的初步成功是否能代表可以异地复制，最终剑指出租车行业？16日，高盛在最新研报中对萝卜快跑的发展前景表示看好。分析认为，随着无人驾驶车队的扩大，萝卜快跑最早在2025年就能实现盈利。当然也不是所有机构都如此乐观。摩根大通此前曾表示，无人驾驶出租车行情为时过早而且基本面并不合理，并预测未来12个月，无人驾驶出租车业务对百度整体利润的贡献可能依然很小。\n市场最关心的：萝卜快跑到底赚不赚钱？\n先上高盛的结论：百度的目标是将其在武汉的车队规模扩大到1000辆RT6（颐驰 06），并预计未来2-3个季度，萝卜快跑业务将在在武汉实现单位经济效益盈亏平衡，在2025年实现盈利。\n在单位利润方面，高盛认为提高的关键因素有三点：\n\n▲平均每次出行价格。即与普通出租车或叫车相比的折扣水平（百度 Robotaxi 目前提供 80% 的折扣），预计到2025 年折扣达40%。\n▲汽车利用率/出行次数（目前为 60% 以上）。\n▲每辆车的安全人员数量。目前为 1 人监控 2 辆车。预计随着技术的进步，每位安全人员的汽车数量将逐渐增加到3辆。\n\n此外，高盛十分看好下一代RT6的发布，该车总成本约为 25 万元人民币，与 RT5相比成本降低了约50-60%。高盛预计到2025年，每辆RT6的单位经济效益将转为正值，每辆车每天的平均营业利润可能在25元至300元人民币之间，1000辆RT6的年利润为900万元人民币。\n高盛进一步表示，随着运营区域扩大和运营时间增加，武汉市2025年的日订单数量将攀升至22笔，与传统网约车服务处于相似水平。随着优惠力度将逐渐减少，2025年每笔订单的平均收入达14元人民币，每辆RT6版本的萝卜快跑日收入为 308 元人民币。\n\n并且得益于在武汉试运营的成功，全无人驾驶正在快速普及，高盛在研报中写道：\n\n2024 年第一季度，百度Apollo Go服务在武汉运营了300辆无人驾驶出租车，当时约70%的订单为全无人驾驶。到了第二季度，更多的无人驾驶出租车投入运营，全无人驾驶的普及率不断上升。\n\n摩根大通在顾虑什么？\n在11日发布的财报中，摩根大通对萝卜快跑业绩水平更加谨慎。分析师指出，提高萝卜快跑盈利能力的关键变量为：定价、车辆成本以及车辆安全员比例，在提高以上三点的基础上，萝卜快跑或许能在2024年下半年实现单个城市盈亏平衡。\n然而，未来一年，百度无人驾驶出租车业务对集团财务贡献可能依然很小，因为想要盈利还受制于两个因素：单位经济效率层面的盈亏平衡和监管部门批准城市全域运营。\n\n只要克服这两个障碍，我们认为利润就只受单位经济效率和车辆数量影响。鉴于中国电动汽车供应链高度发达，后者很容易达到较大规模。\n虽然很难预测当地批准城市全域运营的时间，但我们认为不太可能是 2024 年，最早可能出现在2025 年。\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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