中信证券：LPR报价机制或将迎来改进

市场资讯07-19

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　中信证券研究文|明明章立聪史雨洁杨宏宇　　参考海外经验以及近期政策表态，我们认为LPR报价机制或将迎来改进，从而提升政策效率和市场化程度，短期内LPR报价也有望调降，为信贷回暖创造更适宜的政策条件。随着LPR改革推进，融资成本不断下行，我们预计贷款投放潜力还将进一步释放，虽然短期增速难以大幅反弹，但整体结构...

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杨宏宇\n　　参考海外经验以及近期政策表态，我们认为LPR报价机制或将迎来改进，从而提升政策效率和市场化程度，短期内LPR报价也有望调降，为信贷回暖创造更适宜的政策条件。随着LPR改革推进，融资成本不断下行，我们预计贷款投放潜力还将进一步释放，虽然短期增速难以大幅反弹，但整体结构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2024-07-19/doc-incerrqz5353553.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0276","symbol_name":"资本市场","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2024-07-19/doc-incerrqz5353553.shtml","article_id":"2452649397","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2024-07-19/doc-incerrqz5353553.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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杨宏宇\n　　参考海外经验以及近期政策表态，我们认为LPR报价机制或将迎来改进，从而提升政策效率和市场化程度，短期内LPR报价也有望调降，为信贷回暖创造更适宜的政策条件。随着LPR改革推进，融资成本不断下行，我们预计贷款投放潜力还将进一步释放，虽然短期增速难以大幅反弹，但整体结构优化，金融服务实体的质效也将提升。\n　　▍信贷数据反映融资需求有待提振。\n　　近期金融数据反映实体需求仍需提振，除了常见的刺激政策外，贷款报价机制改革也存在进一步改善的空间。\n　　▍海外贷款定价模式对比：\n　　①目前国际上典型的LPR利率形成机制有三种，彼此各有利弊，美国和日本比较有参考意义。\n　　②美国：LPR与联邦基金目标利率挂钩，但应用范围不断减小，目前主要用于定价难度较高的小额贷款等。\n　　③日本：整体定价市场化与自主化程度较高。\n　　▍我国LPR改进方式猜想：\n　　①央行有意提升逆回购利率作为政策利率的地位，弱化MLF政策利率的色彩，逐步理顺由短及长的利率传导关系。\n　　②未来LPR的定价锚可能从MLF利率转向7天逆回购利率，也有可能参考DR系列利率进行贷款定价，无论具体方式如何，整体趋势是提升政策效率和LPR的市场化程度。\n　　▍LPR降息概率提升。\n　　①央行引导LPR报价从形式上与MLF利率脱锚， LPR的调降空间已经打开。\n　　②贷款利率中LPR减点的占比不断抬升，适时调降LPR可以提升LPR报价质量。\n　　③从已有数据看，贷款利率相较于债券融资利率偏高，可以通过调降LPR引导贷款成本下行，从而激发融资需求，促进经济增长。\n　　▍总结与展望：\n　　参考海外经验以及近期政策表态，我们认为LPR报价机制或将迎来改进，从而提升政策效率和市场化程度，短期内LPR报价也有望调降。随着LPR改革推进，融资成本不断下行，我们预计贷款投放潜力还将进一步释放，虽然短期增速难以大幅反弹，但整体结构优化，金融服务实体的质效也将提升。\n　　▍风险因素：\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：凌辰","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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