海外科技LOF（501312）基金经理赵启元：降息预期抬升利好分母端，中小盘美股向上弹性或更大

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近一周，代表美国中小盘的罗素2000指数上涨近10%，我们认为：胜率角度看，降息预期抬升利好分母端，是中小美股上涨的主要驱动。月初公布的美国制造业和非制造业PMI显著低于预期，驱动美股降息预期逐步抬升，上周美国CPI&核心CPI同比达3/3.3%低于预期，进一步深化了降息预期。同时，鲍威尔有关通胀未降到2%就可以开始降息的偏鸽言论，也驱动降息预期进一步抬升。当前市场预期9月开始降息、年内降息2-3...

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