萝卜快跑后，无人公交车也火出圈了 | 见智研究

华尔街见闻17:55

自7月16日起，济南、深圳和海南等多个城市陆续推出无人驾驶公交车项目，这些项目不再是噱头，而是正式落地。大部分城市的前期道路地图数据采集工作已基本完成，部分路段甚至已开始运营。其中，深圳确定将在7月底开通首个无人驾驶城市公交路线B998。由“萝卜快跑”引领的无人驾驶网约出租车迅速走红，吸引了大量消费者去尝试，并逐步成为人们出行的选择之一。其持续增长的订单数量、即将实现盈亏平衡的运营趋势，以及安全...

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Jianzhi Research","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.6},"content_text":"自7月16日起，济南、深圳和海南等多个城市陆续推出无人驾驶公交车项目，这些项目不再是噱头，而是正式落地。大部分城市的前期道路地图数据采集工作已基本完成，部分路段甚至已开始运营。其中，深圳确定将在7月底开通首个无人驾驶城市公交路线B998。由“萝卜快跑”引领的无人驾驶网约出租车迅速走红，吸引了大量消费者去尝试，并逐步成为人们出行的选择之一。其持续增长的订单数量、即将实现盈亏平衡的运营趋势，以及安全高效的行驶状态，成为市场关注的焦点。此时，无人公交车的上线，无疑是为无人驾驶行业再添了一把火。1、无人驾驶出租车VS无人驾驶公交车新能源的上半场是电动化迭代，下半场是智能化革命。无人驾驶公交车和出租车的高热度，正是汽车智能化技术成功落地并逐步规模化应用的有力证明。值得注意的是，无人驾驶公交车和出租车本身并无高下之分，但在应用方面确有差异。1）无人公交车在“车路云一体化”项目中更具优势工业和信息化部、公安部、自然资源部、住房和城乡建设部、交通运输部联合发布了首批“车路云一体化”应用试点城市名单，并提出了车辆智能改造的详细目标。“车路云一体化”项目要求将车辆、道路和云端平台深度整合，不仅需要在路测安装通信单元和智能化基础设施，还需在车辆上安装车载通讯单元设备。大部分城市都已经有智能网联公交路线，公交车的5G通讯和智能网联覆盖率也高，因此公交车自然成为车辆智能改造的先锋。以长沙为例，该市计划对全市区的2000多台公交车进行智能化改造升级，智慧公交将覆盖70余条线路。通知明确要求2024年至2026年期间，所有试点城市的公交车、公务车等车型的C-V2X车载终端搭载率都需达到50%。这对于无人公交车的发展极为利好。有趣的是，7月中旬首发无人驾驶公交车项目的城市如深圳和济南，均是首批入选20个智能网联汽车“车路云一体化”应用试点城市之一。2）无人公交车行驶路线固定，应用场景复杂程度较低作为公共交通系统的重要组成部分，公交车具有停靠站点明确、单车乘客量大和行驶相对平稳安全的优势。以成都为例，2023年全年，成都公交车客运量达9.5亿人，远高于同期出租车的客运量4914万人。相比无人驾驶出租车，推出无人驾驶公交车无疑能让更多人享受无人驾驶技术的魅力。目前无人驾驶公交车的运营场景主要是机场高架环线、文旅景区、产业园区和居民住宅区中央商务区等，整体路线相对固定，路况较简单。在无人驾驶技术落地初期，推广无人驾驶公交车不仅能提高城市公共交通服务质量，促进城市交通智能化发展，还能在一定程度上降低初期的无人驾驶难度。2、无人驾驶公交车的前景可观无人驾驶公交车项目推广主要分为四个阶段：测试道路地图采集和制作、自动驾驶道路测试和审核、自动驾驶车辆示范应用和正式商用化。目前，启动无人驾驶公交车项目的城市基本处于第二或第三阶段。与无人驾驶出租车不同，无人驾驶公交车的未来渗透率有望得到迅速增长，特别是在文旅景区、产业园区和高校园区等特殊场景中，无人驾驶公交车可能实现全面覆盖。以“萝卜快跑”为例，目前其无人驾驶车队规模约600辆，预计年底增加至1100辆，但仅占武汉全市出租车总量的5%左右。尽管两者处于竞争状态，但在无人驾驶出租车体量较小时影响不大。考虑到企业盈利和民生问题，即使“萝卜快跑”扩大车队规模，无人驾驶出租车也难以完全替代现有的出租车和网约车行业，整体渗透率不会特别高。无人驾驶公交车则可能全面覆盖现有的公交车。一辆无人公交车可替代同一条路线或园区中的多辆常规公交车。中短期来看，由于需要对部分场景下的公交车进行智能升级或替换，公交车的销量有望得到大幅度增长。截至目前，全国公交车的保有量约60万辆，其中车龄在10年以上的公交车接近8万辆，占总保有量的14%，这些车辆有望率先被替换。考虑到2023年中国大中型公交客车销量仅为2万余辆，即使只替换这些老旧公交车，也将显著提升公交车销量。因此，无人驾驶技术正加速进入越来越多的应用场景。从无人驾驶出租车到无人驾驶公交车，期待无人驾驶技术带来更多惊喜。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Product Release","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2452242897"}