食品饮料行业：端午表现平淡关注升学宴情况

南京证券股份有...07-17

食品饮料行业回顾：2024年，消费呈现出旺季更旺、淡季更淡的特征。春节期间，居民返乡叠加出行带动大众消费需求提升，整体表现略好于节前预期；白酒表现较为平稳，好于此前市场悲观预期，礼赠、聚饮等刚性需求支撑高端、大众价格带，行业分化加剧，名酒市场投入加大，在挤压式增长中继续保持韧性。进入二季度，白酒进入传统淡季，酒企以控量提价/挺价，消化库存为主。五一/端午期间，消费表现依然较弱，宴席场景高基数，商务...

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25.76（TTM），处于2019年以来1.79%分位数水平；肉制品PE 25.48（TTM），处于2019年以来64.16%分位数水平；休闲食品PE 22.49（TTM），处于2019年以来12.90%分位数水平。白酒方面：今年端午需求仍然偏弱，白酒整体表现整体较为平淡。从消费场景来看，婚宴等宴席场景受去年高基数影响出现下滑，生日宴等小型宴席虽有上升，但消费档次和消费量与婚宴比仍有差距。大众聚饮消费表现较为平稳，但消费者更加理性，存在降级现象。商务消费仍然未见明显改善。从价格带来看，高端受到茅台批价下滑影响，短期压力增大，五粮液批价仍然较为坚挺。次高端因商务消费承压，短期仍未见明显改善。大众价格带表现较为平稳，100-300元表现较好。从回款进度上看，今年端午节点，行业回款整体略慢于去年同期，其中，五粮液、今世缘快于去年同期。近年来，白酒消费呈现出明显的淡旺季，作为夏季唯一的一个小旺季即是升学宴，建议关注升学宴动销及库存去化情况。从估值上看，白酒龙头公司估值已处于本轮周期以来相对底部位置；新国九条提出重视股东回报，强化上市公司现金分红监管，重视上市公司高质量发展，白酒龙头具有高ROE、现金流稳定、分红逐步提升等优势；目前，高端白酒龙头估值性价比已逐步显现。大众品方面：啤酒需求端大众升级仍在继续；成本端大麦、包材等原材料成本下降；24Q1高基数逐步消化；随着气温的逐渐升高、传统旺季的到来叠加奥运会等体育赛事的开赛，预计业绩有望逐步改善。风险提示：食品安全问题带来的风险；宏观经济下行，消费需求不及预期带来的风险；行业监管政策变动，白酒监管、税收等政策趋严带来的风险等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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食品饮料行业：端午表现平淡 关注升学宴情况

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食品饮料行业：端午表现平淡关注升学宴情况