华创证券：NBV景气度有望延续 COR或受灾害影响略有上行

智通财经07-15

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发表研报称，中期来看人身险NBV增速预计维持景气度，产险COR或小幅上行，投资表现二季度同比有望好转。整体来看，保险行业中报业绩或好于预期。向前展望，步入下半年NBV margin利好因素淡化，驱动由价转量，产险方面基数效应下COR或同比好转，但仍需关注极端天气与灾害影响。本周行情复盘：本周保险指数上涨3.82%，跑赢大盘2.61pct。保险个股普遍上涨，友邦+...

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margin利好因素淡化，驱动由价转量，产险方面基数效应下COR或同比好转，但仍需关注极端天气与灾害影响。本周行情复盘：本周保险指数上涨3.82%，跑赢大盘2.61pct。保险个股普遍上涨，友邦+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150848.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150848.html","article_id":"2451697194","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2451697194","pubTimestamp":1721028948,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发表研报称，中期来看人身险NBV增速预计维持景气度，产险COR或小幅上行，投资表现二季度同比有望好转。COR表现上，受南方降雨影响，雨季相关灾害频率与程度逐步超预期。华创证券预计，受灾害影响上市险企COR均环比略有上行，同比亦承压。向前展望，步入下半年NBV 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margin改善有望继续带来对NBV增速的支撑。整体来看NBV增速或略低于Q1表现，但仍能维持两位数增长，华创证券预测24H1上市险企NBV增速排序：人保>新华>太保>国寿>平安。产险：景气度预计不及去年同期，COR受灾害影响环比或略有上行。保费规模上，今年以来产险行业增速明显低于同期水平。车险方面，去年同期受益于防疫措施优化、出行恢复，汽车市场需求提升带来相对高基数，此外由于报行合一影响今年车均保费有所下降。非车险方面，政策性农险受招标节奏、到账情况等影响增速有所下滑，健康险市场需求亦未见明显回暖，高风险险种持续出清。COR表现上，受南方降雨影响，雨季相关灾害频率与程度逐步超预期。截至7月11日12时，湖南、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、广东、广西、贵州等地保险机构累计接到报案9.5万件，估损(报损)金额32.1亿元，已赔付和预赔付金额超11亿元。华创证券预计，受灾害影响上市险企COR均环比略有上行，同比亦承压。华创证券预测24H1上市险企COR排序：人保<太保<平安。资产端：投资收益环比预计略有下行，同比或好转。长端利率(十年期国债收益率)二季度低位震荡，小幅下行9bp(一季度下行27bp)。权益市场方面，大盘(沪深300指数)二季度震荡下行，收跌2.14%(一季度收涨3.1%)。资本市场共振影响，上市险企预计投资表现环比下行。但同比来看，去年同期长端利率下行19bp，大盘收跌5.15%，预计投资端同比有所好转。投资建议：中期来看人身险NBV增速预计维持景气度，产险COR或小幅上行，投资表现二季度同比有望好转。整体来看，保险行业中报业绩或好于预期。向前展望，步入下半年NBV margin利好因素淡化，驱动由价转量，产险方面基数效应下COR或同比好转，但仍需关注极端天气与灾害影响。当前市场风格偏防御，推荐估值处于相对低位(0.81x pb)、分红比例维持40%以上的财险龙头中国财险H，以及产寿基本面稳健、“长航转型”带来阿尔法动能的中国太保。权益市场回暖情况下，建议关注弹性品种新华保险、中国人寿。若地产风险修复，建议关注中国平安。当前PEV估值：友邦1.13x、国寿0.71x、平安0.56x、太保0.50x、新华0.39xPB估值：财险H0.81x、人保A0.96x。风险提示：监管变动、改革不及预期、自然灾害加剧、长端利率下行、权益市场波动","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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