【财经分析】伯克希尔股价创历史新高 “美股变局”或许正悄然开启

新华财经07-16

新华财经上海7月16日电（葛佳明）今年以来，美股“科技股七巨头”频繁创新高成了市场关注的焦点，而近期在科技巨头走势逐渐疲软之际，“股神”巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦集团的股价也正刷新历史高点。隔夜，伯克希尔哈撒韦A类股股价收涨2.11%至65.2997万美元，连续第五个交易日上涨，超越今年2月创下的64.7039万美元的历史新高。分析师普遍认为，伯克希尔股价近日连续上涨，可以反映出美股重心或许正逐步...

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stock change\" may be quietly beginning","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1},"content_text":"新华财经上海7月16日电（葛佳明）今年以来，美股“科技股七巨头”频繁创新高成了市场关注的焦点，而近期在科技巨头走势逐渐疲软之际，“股神”巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦集团的股价也正刷新历史高点。隔夜，伯克希尔哈撒韦A类股股价收涨2.11%至65.2997万美元，连续第五个交易日上涨，超越今年2月创下的64.7039万美元的历史新高。分析师普遍认为，伯克希尔股价近日连续上涨，可以反映出美股重心或许正逐步从科技股向价值股转移。威灵顿投资管理全球投资及多元资产策略师Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson和投资策略分析师Karoline Klimova对新华财经分析称，价值股在未来三到五年内会有不错的表现，结构性通胀和实际利率的上升都将有助于美股价值股走势。投资者在经历了成长股的长期反弹后，应该更加关注资产组合的平衡性。科技股浪潮渐止？根据高盛主经纪商业务（Prime Brokerage）近期发布的每周市场资金流动报告，上周标普500指数11大板块中有7个板块遭遇资金净流出，主要集中在信息技术、通讯服务和必需消费品等板块，非必需消费品、能源、公用事业和房地产等周期股则是资金净买入。高盛称，对冲基金们已连续四周净卖出信息技术和通信服务（TMT）股票。摩根士丹利也在最新发布的报告中表示，科技股出现大范围抛售之际，上周全球对冲基金对美国软件类股的敞口触及多年来新低。“其中软件股是净卖出最多的股票，这延续了该领域自4月底以来的净卖出势头，将风险敞口降至多年来的新低。”随着美股二季报发布在即，“高估值撞上高预期”的科技巨头们业绩是否能匹配市场的期待成为了未来走势的关键。美银美林在近期发布的研报中预计，二季报标普500中除“科技股七巨头”以外其他493家公司，有望打破最近五个季度利润增速放缓的趋势，而“七巨头”的利润增速或连续第二个季度放缓。伦交所高级研究分析师Tajinder Dhillon表示，第一季度，“科技股七巨头”盈利同比增长51.8%，而标普500指数其他板块盈利同比仅增长为1.3%。二季度差距预计将缩小，七巨头盈利将增长29.7%，其他板块将增长7.2%。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders也表示，科技巨头的盈利能力如何匹配当前的估值水平仍有较大的不确定性，但很明显市场对这些公司的盈利预期相当高。高股息价值股成了“香饽饽”？市场情绪的轮回就算是“AI龙头股”也无法逃脱，英伟达为首的科技股领涨势头停滞之际，资金或许正逐步向价值股转移。从标普500价值指数和罗素1000价值指数的走势来看，今年上半年，价值股持续横盘调整，但在过去的一周涨幅均达到了3%。而伯克希尔显然就是价值股的代表，同时也是上述两大指数ETF的最大成分股。Glenmede投资策略和研究主管普莱德（Jason Pride）认为，大盘成长股的估值今年以来一直在高位徘徊，而价值股目前估值相对更为合理。与此同时，价值股下一阶段或许能为投资者提供高股息，因此高质量、高股息的价值股或将成为市场未来的选择。美银美林美股和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚（Savita Subramanian）认为，投资者增加对周期性行业价值股投资的理由现在已变得更加充分。“考虑到宏观环境，未来几年带领股市上涨的将会是大盘价值股。”监管文件显示，今年以来，伯克希尔哈撒韦减仓科技股，加仓能源和保险，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在6月连续9个交易日中买入西方石油股票，最新持股比例达到了近29%。巴菲特表示，伯克希尔特别看好西方石油公司在美国持有的大量石油和天然气，以及它在碳捕集方面的领先地位。威灵顿投资管理解释称，价值股通常集中在成熟的周期性行业，如金融、能源、材料和工业。这些行业往往具有低市盈率、稳定的现金流、低增长率和高股息收益率的特点。相反，成长股通常与那些被视为创新或颠覆性的行业挂钩，比如科技、医疗保健和非必需消费品，这些行业往往市盈率较高。“随着时间的推移，价值股变得比成长股更分散、更多元化，而成长股则更为集中。”威灵顿投资认为，相比成长股，价值股将继续出现更广泛的行业多元化趋势。威灵顿投资管理称，价值股的业绩表现并不一定与经济周期同步，在未来几年，结构性通胀和实际利率的上升都将有助于价值股的发展。投资者在经历了成长股的长期反弹后，应该更加关注资产组合的平衡性。编辑：谈瑞","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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