隆基绿能(601012)存货减值及产业链利润中枢压缩导致业绩短期承压，后续关注HPBC 2.0量产进

中信建投07-15

核心观点公司发布2024年半年度业绩预告，预计2024年上半年归母净利润亏损48-55亿元，同比下降152%-160%；预计扣非后归母净利润亏损48.39-55.39亿元，同比下降153%-161%。公司业绩承压主要系①受制于光伏行业整体供需错配、各环节主要产品市场销售价格大幅下降，同时参股硅料公司投资收益下降。②公司预计计提存货减值金额45亿元到48亿元，对业绩造成较大的负面影响。公司新产品性能...

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Follow-up attention will be paid to the mass production progress of HPBC 2.0","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601012":1},"content_text":"核心观点公司发布2024年半年度业绩预告，预计2024年上半年归母净利润亏损48-55亿元，同比下降152%-160%；预计扣非后归母净利润亏损48.39-55.39亿元，同比下降153%-161%。公司业绩承压主要系①受制于光伏行业整体供需错配、各环节主要产品市场销售价格大幅下降，同时参股硅料公司投资收益下降。②公司预计计提存货减值金额45亿元到48亿元，对业绩造成较大的负面影响。公司新产品性能优秀，有望四季度批量供货。事件公司发布2024年半年度业绩预告公司预计2024年上半年归母净利润亏损48-55亿元，同比下降152%-160%；预计扣非后归母净利润亏损48.39-55.39亿元，同比下降153%-161%。按预告中值来看，Q2公司归母净利润-28亿，同比下降151%；扣非后归母净利润-27.7亿，同比下降151%。简评受产业链价格和库存减值影响Q2公司业绩承压按预告中值来看，二季度公司归母净利润亏损28亿，同比下降151%；扣非后归母净利润亏损27.7亿，同比下降151%。公司二季度业绩承压主要系①受制于光伏行业整体供需错配、各环节主要产品市场销售价格大幅下降，同时参股硅料公司投资收益下降。②公司预计计提存货减值金额45亿元到48亿元，对业绩造成较大的负面影响。深入布局BC技术，新产品有望四季度批量供货上半年公司推出了基于HPBC2.0电池技术的Hi-MO9新产品，搭载高品质泰睿N型硅片和先进钝化技术，组件功率高达660W，转换效率高达24.43%，公司将加快推进新产品于今年四季度开始批量供货，聚力打造长期可持续竞争力。在手现金规模充足，为后续BC扩产提供基础公司目前在手现金规模在行业中居于相对领先位置，为后续BC扩产提供基础。截止2024年一季度末，公司货币资金573.14亿元。根据公司公告，预期25年底公司BC产能将达到70GW，其中一代产品产能约20GW，二代产品产能约50GW。盈利预测：我们预计公司2024-2026年归母净利润-5.3/33.9/46.5亿元，2025-2026年对应2024年7月10日PE估值为31.7/23.1倍。2024年行业竞争加剧导致产业链价格下行，公司业绩承压。预计2025年行业可能逐步出清，公司作为BC技术领先的一体化龙头，盈利有望修复，维持“增持”评级。风险分析1、行业需求不及预期的风险。公司业务覆盖光伏产业链众多环节，倘若行业增速不及预期，将会对公司光伏组件、硅片、电站、委托加工等业务都造成较大的负面影响。2、HPBC提效降本不及预期。HPBC是公司的一大差异化产品，在盈利能力上具有一定优势。倘若公司HPBC提效降本不及预期，那么公司的盈利能力以及产品竞争力上将受到负面影响。3、项目进展不及预期的风险。公司扩产项目较多，一体化产能投产后将为公司一体化组件盈利带来一定提升。倘若公司项目进展不及预期，那么公司的出货量及盈利能力将受到较大的影响。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2451269182"}