5家光伏主链企业上半年预亏超129亿！股价却反弹，行业利空已出尽？

时代周报07-10

2024年上半年已结束。饱受价格战折磨的光伏企业，在7月9日晚间集中发出业绩预告，但身处科创板的天合光能（688599.SH）和晶科能源（688223.SH）并未披露业绩预告。业绩预告显示，隆基绿能（601012.SH）预计归母净利润亏损48亿元至55亿元；晶澳科技（002459.SZ）预计归母净利润亏损8亿元至12亿元；TCL中环（002129.SZ）预计归母净利润亏损29亿元至32亿元；...

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However, the stock price has rebounded, and the negative news of the industry has been exhausted?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600438":1,"600481":1,"600537":1,"600732":0.9,"601012":1,"603185":1,"603398":1,"688223":1,"688599":1,"002459":1,"002129":1,"002865":1},"content_text":"2024年上半年已结束。饱受价格战折磨的光伏企业，在7月9日晚间集中发出业绩预告，但身处科创板的天合光能（688599.SH）和晶科能源（688223.SH）并未披露业绩预告。业绩预告显示，隆基绿能（601012.SH）预计归母净利润亏损48亿元至55亿元；晶澳科技（002459.SZ）预计归母净利润亏损8亿元至12亿元；TCL中环（002129.SZ）预计归母净利润亏损29亿元至32亿元；爱旭股份（600732.SH）预计归母净利润亏损14亿元至20亿元；通威股份（600438.SH）预计归母净利润亏损30亿元至33亿元。目前已披露业绩的光伏主链公司，上半年业绩预亏超129亿元。TCL中环在公告中指出，报告期内，光伏产业链硅料、硅片以及电池片等主要环节产品价格下跌，至2024年第二季度，各产业环节基本处于销售价格和成本倒挂、普遍亏损甚至现金成本亏损的状态，经营业绩承压。公司2024年半年度预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为负但依旧保持经营性净现金流为正，坚守经营底线。关于销售价格和成本倒挂导致亏损的情况，几乎每一家光伏主链公司都有提及这一因素。可想而知，价格战的严峻程度或许超出投资者想象。“报告期内，光伏市场竞争加剧、光伏产品价格持续下跌，公司主营业务盈利能力下降，存货跌价准备大幅增加，对业绩造成较大负面影响。”爱旭股份在业绩预告中指出，“在N型ABC组件环节，基于产品价值定价的商业模式基本成熟，2024年上半年ABC组件销售量较去年全年增长200%以上。”“从2023年下半年开始，光伏行业逐步进入新一轮的调整周期，表现为行业竞争激烈，产业链各环节产品价格持续显著快速甚至非理性下跌。今年以来，光伏四大主材中，硅料价格跌超40%，硅片价格跌去30%以上，二者与去年高点相比跌幅超80%；电池、组件年内价格分别降了至少15%，与去年高点相比缩水近60%。但目前行业处于筑底阶段，硅片在近期也出现了价格回涨的现象，后续随着供给加快出清，有望逐步迎来供需和价格改善局面。”爱旭股份相关人士接受时代周报记者采访时称。“ABC目前硅片成本已经比TOPCon低。后期珠海基地逐步满产后，ABC组件成本会与TOPCon基本持平。在济南基地，我们将拥有更先进、更低成本的工程制造能力，全成本比TOPCon组件低3分至5分/W。”上述相关人士说。只不过，一线梯队们业绩都陷入了亏损，二三线厂商的处境更加艰难。公告显示，弘元绿能（603185.SH）预计归母净利润亏损8亿元至11亿元；双良节能（600481.SH）预计归母净利润亏损10.3亿元至12.8亿元；亿晶光电（600537.SH）预计归母净利润亏损4亿元至6亿元；沐邦高科（603398.SH）预计归母净利润亏损1.52亿元至1.87亿元；钧达股份（002865.SZ）预计归母净利润亏损9000万元至1.8亿元。“光伏产业链价格持续下滑，行业竞争愈发激烈，硅料和硅片均价大幅下降，且硅片价格降幅大于硅料；同时，制造费用中的电费、坩埚等耗材价格同比增长，使得主营业务毛利大幅下降。”沐邦高科表示，“报告期内公司硅片（硅棒）业务存货跌价准备大幅上升。”据时代周报记者不完全统计，在一众光伏产业链上市公司的业绩预告中，业绩亏损的原因主要集中在“行业需求出现阶段性供需错配”、“整体毛利及盈利水平下降”、“存货跌价准备大幅上升”等三个因素。而“增量不增收”的状况，在隆基绿能、爱旭股份等排名前列的光伏公司身上多有体现。在技术迭代方面，光伏行业逐步出现了BC、TOPCon并存的苗头 。据时代周报记者了解，在今年SNEC展会上，不少头部厂商都推出了BC技术相关的展品。在龙头隆基绿能和爱旭股份都主动推进BC技术之际，没有头部厂商愿意置身事外。而大火的TOPCon产品则已成为所有厂商的标配产品。有意思的是，在光伏企业集中预告上半年亏损后，7月10日光伏板块整体迎来了弱反弹行情。“当行业供求关系出现扭转、个股业绩好转、整体板块持续有资金流入时，则有可能出现中线行情，但在上述条件未达到的情况下，下行趋势板块不能轻易抄底。光伏板块具体反转节点，可能要到今年下半年或四季度以后。”弘扬投资管理有限公司董事长余少波对时代周报记者说。同花顺iFind显示，7月10日，晶澳科技报收10.02元/股，涨1.42%；爱旭股份报收8.23元/股，跌2.83%；TCL中环报收8.23元/股，涨4.05%；弘元绿能报收15.86元/股，涨0.83%；双良节能报收4.01元/股，跌5.87%；亿晶光电报收2.31元/股，跌4.55%；沐邦高科报收14.07元/股，跌4.61%；钧达股份报收35.83元/股，涨1.53%；隆基绿能报收13.56元/股，涨3.04%，总市值为1028亿元，重回千亿市值俱乐部。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2450501968"}