东鹏饮料(605499)：东鹏饮料24Q2点评：主业新品双超预期

华安证券07-11

公司发布24Q 2预告：Q2：预计营收43.8-46.0 亿（+47%-55%），归母9.4~10.7 亿（+53%-75%），扣非9.3-10.6 亿（+72%-97%）H1：预计营收78.6-80.8 亿（+44%-48%），归母16.0-17.3 亿（+44%-56%），扣非15.5-16.8 亿（+56%-70%）收入利润大超预期，连续5 个季度均30%以上高增。业绩强势成长，新品占比逐步...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2450433859?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-07-11 16:24","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2450433859","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"东鹏饮料(605499)：东鹏饮料24Q2点评：主业新品双超预期","media":"华安证券","content":"<div>\n<p>公司发布24Q 2预告：Q2：预计营收43.8-46.0 亿（+47%-55%），归母9.4~10.7 亿（+53%-75%），扣非9.3-10.6 亿（+72%-97%）H1：预计营收78.6-80.8 亿（+44%-48%），归母16.0-17.3 亿（+44%-56%），扣非15.5-16.8 亿（+56%-70%）收入利润大超预期，连续5 个季度均30%以上高增。业绩强势成长，新品占比逐步...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024071116243895a4d56d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>东鹏饮料(605499)：东鹏饮料24Q2点评：主业新品双超预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n东鹏饮料(605499)：东鹏饮料24Q2点评：主业新品双超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-11 16:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024071116243895a4d56d&s=b><strong>华安证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>公司发布24Q 2预告：Q2：预计营收43.8-46.0 亿（+47%-55%），归母9.4~10.7 亿（+53%-75%），扣非9.3-10.6 亿（+72%-97%）H1：预计营收78.6-80.8 亿（+44%-48%），归母16.0-17.3 亿（+44%-56%），扣非15.5-16.8 亿（+56%-70%）收入利润大超预期，连续5 个季度均30%以上高增。业绩强势成长，新品占比逐步...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024071116243895a4d56d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"605499","symbol_name":"东鹏饮料","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024071116243895a4d56d&s=b","article_id":"2450433859","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024071116243895a4d56d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2450433859","pubTimestamp":1720686274,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"收入分析：主业+新品双超预期Q2 预计在消费疲弱/南方降雨较多之下月均35-40%高增且库存同比大幅下降25-30 天，印证终端动销强势。主业：预计Q2 特饮占收入比重约8 成，同比增近30%。新品：预计Q2 新品占收入比重近2 成，同比+130%贡献增量。我们预计新品超预期核心拉动是补水啦贡献新品超6 成。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"605499":"东鹏饮料","BK0215":"饮品"},"translate_title":"Dongpeng Beverage (605499): Dongpeng Beverage 24Q2 Comments: New products in the main business exceeded expectations","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"605499":1},"content_text":"公司发布24Q 2预告：Q2：预计营收43.8-46.0 亿（+47%-55%），归母9.4~10.7 亿（+53%-75%），扣非9.3-10.6 亿（+72%-97%）H1：预计营收78.6-80.8 亿（+44%-48%），归母16.0-17.3 亿（+44%-56%），扣非15.5-16.8 亿（+56%-70%）收入利润大超预期，连续5 个季度均30%以上高增。业绩强势成长，新品占比逐步提升为今年打开估值空间。收入分析：主业+新品双超预期Q2 预计在消费疲弱/南方降雨较多之下月均35-40%高增且库存同比大幅下降25-30 天，印证终端动销强势。主业：预计Q2 特饮占收入比重约8 成，同比增近30%（24Q1+30%/ 23Q4 +32%，刚性增长）。其中广东占收入比重预计约2.5成、省外预计同比+50%，主业超预期的核心拉动是全国化超预期（预计H1 全国网点380w/今年净开50w，反映省外强势)。新品：预计Q2 新品占收入比重近2 成（Q1 占1.1 成），同比+130%贡献增量（23Q1-4 新品+14/ 193/ 325/ 253%连续高增）。我们预计新品超预期核心拉动是补水啦贡献新品超6 成（预计Q2 销额近5 亿/全国网点达206w，望提前完成全年10 亿目标）。利润分析：动销强势下盈利提升中值测算Q2 净利率22.3%，同比+1.7pct，成本费用控制得当，预计旺季前冰柜投放费用已前置；整合看H1 净利率20.9%，同比+0.6pct，投入加码下基本稳定，预计H2 冰柜投放加码以图长期增量但费用率可控。投资建议：维持“买入”我们的观点：主业趋势定业绩、新品趋势定估值，我们认为两大业务超预期，核心来自β 上就业结构和性价比趋势强化，α 上推新/ 拓网点/ 冷柜投放前置的结果。长期用户扩容+份额提升逻辑下主业天花板望超红牛的200 亿；新品1+6 策略下，补水啦（今年预计翻倍）、无糖茶、VIVI 鸡尾酒、椰汁、大咖、多喝多润为增量。盈利预测：我们上调盈利预测，预计2024-26 年公司实现营业收入152.3/ 191.5/ 237.2 亿元，同比+35.2%/ +25.7%/ +23.9%（原预测144.5/ 180.7/ 222.6 亿元）；实现归母净利润28.5/ 36.8/ 46.3 亿元，同比+39.8%/+29.0%/+25.7%（原预测26.5/ 34.1/ 42.5 亿元）；当前股价对应PE 分别为30/23/18 倍，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：需求不及预期，新品拓展不及预期，市场竞争加剧，原材料成本超预期上涨。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2450433859"}