美联储要降息？那美国货币基金还能买吗？

华尔街见闻07-12

随着美国财政部过去一年大幅增加短期国债发行，华尔街在美联储降息前景下对市场需求存在担忧。据媒体周五报道，自2023年初以来，美国财政部已发行2.23万亿美元短期美债，目前市场似乎轻松消化了这些供应，短期国债与隔夜指数掉期等无风险利率之间的定价保持相对稳定。然而，一些分析师担心，随着美联储可能开始降息和缩表，市场资金可能出现压力。Apollo Global Management首席经济学家...

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Can the US money fund still be bought?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03152":1,"SPY":1,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"随着美国财政部过去一年大幅增加短期国债发行，华尔街在美联储降息前景下对市场需求存在担忧。\n据媒体周五报道，自2023年初以来，美国财政部已发行2.23万亿美元短期美债，目前市场似乎轻松消化了这些供应，短期国债与隔夜指数掉期等无风险利率之间的定价保持相对稳定。\n然而，一些分析师担心，随着美联储可能开始降息和缩表，市场资金可能出现压力。Apollo Global Management首席经济学家Torsten Slok警告：\n\n一旦美联储在9月开始降息，家庭和货币市场基金对短期国债的需求可能下降，从而推高短期利率。\n\n但并非所有华尔街专家都持此观点，一些分析师认为，为了锁定美联储加息带来的高回报，投资者已大量涌入货币市场。截至最新数据,货币市场基金资产总额达6.14万亿美元，接近历史新高，他们认为这些资金将保持充裕。\n随着美联储接近降息，货币市场基金开始延长资产久期，购买更长期限的短期国债以锁定更高收益。这意味着直接购买短期国债的企业将转而将现金投向基金，从而进一步增加货币市场对短期国债的需求。\nAllspring Global Investments高级投资组合经理Mike Bird表示：\n\n在美联储降息周期中短期国债需求下降的观点有些言过其实，特别是货币市场基金，我们将继续保持购买需求。\n\n摩根大通美国短期利率主管Teresa Ho认为：\n\n在过去三个降息周期中，直到美联储降息进程进入后半段，资金才开始从货币市场基金流出，目前4%到5%的收益率仍然相当高。\n\n此外，供给方面，由于债务上限将于明年1月1日重新生效，短期国债发行量可能会有所下降。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2450263293"}