公用事业行业深度跟踪：调峰激励碳配额获取资本运作提速进行时

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核心观点：关注:中广核电力+浙能电力+华润电力+广州发展+华能国际电力股份+华电国际电力股份+国电电力+长江电力+国投电力碳配额新政适度收紧，鼓励调峰挖掘调节价值。生态环境部发布《2023、2024 年度全国碳排放权交易发电行业配额总量和分配方案》（征求意见稿），相较2021、2022 年碳配额分配方案，要点有三：（1）整体来看新一轮碳配额适度收紧、略有缺口，对大型机组、煤耗较低机组影响更小；（2...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024070821073695908d8e&s=b><strong>广发证券股份有...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点：关注:中广核电力+浙能电力+华润电力+广州发展+华能国际电力股份+华电国际电力股份+国电电力+长江电力+国投电力碳配额新政适度收紧，鼓励调峰挖掘调节价值。生态环境部发布《2023、2024 年度全国碳排放权交易发电行业配额总量和分配方案》（征求意见稿），相较2021、2022 年碳配额分配方案，要点有三：（1）整体来看新一轮碳配额适度收紧、略有缺口，对大型机组、煤耗较低机组影响更小；（2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024070821073695908d8e&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1048596156.SGD","symbol_name":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 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accelerating","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600795":0.9,"600900":0.9},"content_text":"核心观点：关注:中广核电力+浙能电力+华润电力+广州发展+华能国际电力股份+华电国际电力股份+国电电力+长江电力+国投电力碳配额新政适度收紧，鼓励调峰挖掘调节价值。生态环境部发布《2023、2024 年度全国碳排放权交易发电行业配额总量和分配方案》（征求意见稿），相较2021、2022 年碳配额分配方案，要点有三：（1）整体来看新一轮碳配额适度收紧、略有缺口，对大型机组、煤耗较低机组影响更小；（2）机组负荷率补偿上限由85%下调至65%，即激励机组调峰甚至深度调峰，若负荷低于65%则配额调整影响较小；（3）引入配额结转机制，最大可结转量为净卖出量的1.5 倍，鼓励配额盈余企业出售配额、释放配额供给。政策对火电的引导趋势已经非常清晰：即从发电资产走向调峰资源，无论是容量电价、辅助服务亦或是碳配额的分配机制，弱化火电发电价值的过程中势必带来稳定性的验证。电力资本运作有所加速，持续关注火核公用事业化。近三个月以来，我们发现电力运营商资本运作提速，一方面是资产的置出与收购，如国电电力、中国电力剥离煤炭相关业务提升电力业务占比，龙源电力拟收购大股东4GW 新能源资产；另一方面中国广核、华能水电推动股权融资，中国核电发布新能源REITs，融资陆续显露端倪。与此同时，市场也在年初以来的公用事业化行情中进一步认知板块的稳定性和长久期的价值，我们认为行情仍将加速，在水电进一步公用事业化程度提升的过程中，重点关注核电成长性和类水电属性下的低估值、关注火电伴随电改推进盈利稳定性提升带来的机会，并可关注部分低估值的绿电。二季度业绩高增可期，火电的价值行情三部曲进入验证期和兑现期。本周水电陆续发布发电量数据或中报业绩预告，电量高增符合我们的测算和判断，如长江电力Q2 发电量同比+43%，桂冠电力预告上半年业绩同比+52~63%。对于火电，市场对发电量存在担忧，但是已经充分反映情绪。我们建议更多关注火电在本轮托底煤价过程中相对更低的购煤成本，以及通过市场化交易等手段带来的电价盈利修正。近期煤价进入平稳期、电改又或将进入迅速推进阶段，火电的价值行情三部曲进入密集的验证期和兑现阶段，火电业绩佳、稳定性提升，明确本轮火电在公用事业化过程中的估值提升机会（以浙能为例当前13xPE*11%ROE=1.5xPB，估值仍处低位）。公用事业化加速进行时。【火电】高ROE+高分红+高成长+低估值的浙能电力、华润电力、广州发展，高股息华电国际、申能股份、内蒙华电，高成长国电电力、皖能电力、华能国际；【水电】长江电力、桂冠电力、国投电力、川投能源；【核电】中广核电力（H）；【绿电】福能股份。风险提示。改革不及预期；煤价超额上涨；绿电装机进度低预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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公用事业行业深度跟踪：调峰激励碳配额获取 资本运作提速进行时

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公用事业行业深度跟踪：调峰激励碳配额获取资本运作提速进行时