中报业绩兑现度较高—— 酿酒行业估值有望企稳

大众证券报07-02

根据Wind中国行业指数，2日酒类板块整体涨幅为2.5%，位列各大行业板块涨幅榜第一位。《大众证券报》记者注意到，五粮液和泸州老窖等上市公司股东大会的战略定调引起了市场投资者的高度关注，整体来看，在2023年度股东大会上，酒企的战略更侧重于长远规划以及股东回报。分析人士认为，随着中报窗口期的临近，部分酒企业绩兑现度较高。投资者交流会聚焦长远策略盘面显示，金种子酒、*ST莫高、皇台酒业、今世缘、...

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stabilize","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9,"000858":0.64},"content_text":"根据Wind中国行业指数，2日酒类板块整体涨幅为2.5%，位列各大行业板块涨幅榜第一位。《大众证券报》记者注意到，五粮液和泸州老窖等上市公司股东大会的战略定调引起了市场投资者的高度关注，整体来看，在2023年度股东大会上，酒企的战略更侧重于长远规划以及股东回报。分析人士认为，随着中报窗口期的临近，部分酒企业绩兑现度较高。投资者交流会聚焦长远策略盘面显示，金种子酒、*ST莫高、皇台酒业、今世缘、会稽山、贵州茅台、金徽酒、五粮液、顺鑫农业、水井坊等10只个股2日分别上涨5.93%、5.08%、3.97%、3.69%、3.58%、3.49%、3.36%、2.54%、2.38%、2.34%。总体来看，2日Wind酒类板块整体涨幅为2.5%，位列各大行业板块涨幅榜首位。在五粮液近期召开的股东大会上，公司透露：“公司预计2024年继续实现稳健的两位数增长，分红率有望继续提升。公司持续完善产品结构，第八代五粮液将遵循量价平衡原则，持续优化投放节奏和商家结构，不盲目求增。”另外，在泸州老窖的股东大会上，公司经营目标为2024年营业收入同比增幅不低于15%，该公司战略规划是在良性基础上，能跑多快跑多快，兼顾长期发展。7月1日，贵州茅台代总经理王莉在北京主持召开投资者交流会，与部分机构投资者代表、券商代表进行深入交流。“茅台市值管理要在A股努力成为标杆，分红是大股东和中小股东的一致诉求。但市值管理不只是分红，还包括建立与投资者沟通的常态化机制等多个维度，我们都会努力做好。”交流会上，王莉提出“两个基点”，与投资者代表达成共识，“第一，茅台长期可持续高质量发展的动能不能变，不能因资金保障等基础性条件影响未来的发展面。第二，能够利于股东对茅台的长期价值投资。”酒企估值有望企稳值得一提的是，今年以来白酒行业需求表现平淡，部分酒企计划围绕消费者进行营销战略的布局调整。其中，泸州老窖提出，当下进入消费市场的以“00后”为主，需把握高端消费群体迭代蕴含的机会;五粮液提出，白酒产业长周期的价值属性和螺旋式上升的底层逻辑并未改变，主力消费群体呈现出明显的代际交替特征。产品价格上，光大证券分析师叶倩瑜表示：“此前行业板块波动主要受飞天茅台批价跌幅较大的影响，近期茅台调整产品投放政策、在供给端进行控制，本周散瓶飞天茅台批价有所企稳，后续继续关注挺价成效，以及公司或将出台新的措施维稳价格，板块情绪亦有望回暖。结合行业龙头股东大会反馈，行业良性发展可期，增长质量更受酒企关注。虽然需求恢复仍需时间，但龙头酒企依旧保持较为稳定的市场秩序，结合中报窗口期临近，部分酒企业绩兑现度较高。”2日，上海一券商人士向《大众证券报》记者表示：“酒企的长期发展策略符合行业趋势，有助于提升企业的核心竞争力和市场地位。同时，这一策略也体现了企业对股东利益的重视，以及对未来发展的信心和决心。部分酒企龙头在股东大会上的表现给投资者和市场传递出了积极的信号。随着企业战略的深入实施和行业环境的改善，酒业的整体估值有望逐步企稳，为投资者带来更加稳健的回报。”在投资策略上，西部证券分析师张弛认为，2024年，行业仍将处于去库周期，动销延续弱复苏状态。结合当前估值水平、分红提升预期以及头部酒企中期可预期的稳健增长，白酒行业配置价值仍高，建议优选基本面较强的标的，推荐业绩确定性仍强的今世缘、古井贡酒以及山西汾酒、贵州茅台;其次是内部管理边际改善的五粮液、估值性价比突出的泸州老窖。记者 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