指数集中度过高！Piper Sandler放弃标普500年终目标预测

智通财经07-04

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街投行Piper Sandler的宏观研究团队将不再发表对标普500指数年底目标的单一数字预测，称这是与客户沟通的低效方式。Piper Sandler首席投资策略师Michael Kantrowitz表示，考虑到标普500指数成分股公司的集中程度，预测这一指数的绝对表现已经变得毫无意义。据悉，十只最大的股票占标普500指数的37%。Michael Kantrowitz表示：...

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Piper Sandler Drops S&P 500 Year-End Target Forecast","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":1,"VOO":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，华尔街投行Piper Sandler的宏观研究团队将不再发表对标普500指数年底目标的单一数字预测，称这是与客户沟通的低效方式。Piper Sandler首席投资策略师Michael Kantrowitz表示，考虑到标普500指数成分股公司的集中程度，预测这一指数的绝对表现已经变得毫无意义。据悉，十只最大的股票占标普500指数的37%。Michael Kantrowitz表示：“我认为再次提高对标普500指数的目标没有价值，因为它已经成为解释股票的一种糟糕形势，而这正是它最初的本意。”“为个股设定目标价是有道理的，但对标普500指数来说就不那么有意义了。”Michael Kantrowitz在2023年的大部分时间里都对美国股市持悲观看法，但在去年年底改变了观点。今年2月，他再次将对标普500指数的目标上调至5250点。值得一提的是，Canaccord Genuity LLC前策略师Tony Dwyer也放弃了对标普500指数年终目标的预测。他表示，只有少数几只股票在该指数市值中占据如此大的份额，因此不可能做出预测。Michael Kantrowitz重申，他仍然受到美国股市的鼓舞，但比他在2024年初时更为谨慎。他建议投资者以合理的价格购买优质股票。此外，一项在6月对策略师的调查显示，标普500指数年终目标的最高和最低点位相差43%，为过去15年的调查中第二高的，仅次于2023年。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2448084457"}