美总统选举首场候选人电视辩论后，第一波市场反应来了！

华尔街见闻06-29 06:59

据环球网，在美国2024年总统选举首场电视辩论中，现任总统拜登和前任总统特朗普激烈交锋，争论焦点包括阿富汗撤军、俄乌冲突等问题。双方进行了激烈的“人身攻击”，下场“舌战”定于9月10日。民调数据显示，截至6月25日，特朗普在全国民调中平均领先拜登1个百分点；在关键“摇摆州”，特朗普平均领先3.2个百分点。财经金融博客Zerohedge点评称，市场开始积极消化共和党/特朗普在11月获胜的可能性。...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3718398><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据环球网，在美国2024年总统选举首场电视辩论中，现任总统拜登和前任总统特朗普激烈交锋，争论焦点包括阿富汗撤军、俄乌冲突等问题。双方进行了激烈的“人身攻击”，下场“舌战”定于9月10日。民调数据显示，截至6月25日，特朗普在全国民调中平均领先拜登1个百分点；在关键“摇摆州”，特朗普平均领先3.2个百分点。\n财经金融博客Zerohedge点评称，市场开始积极消化共和党/特朗普在11月获胜的可能性。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3718398\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0742534661.SGD","symbol_name":"Fidelity America A-SGD 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came!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UNH":1,"TIPS":1,"REIT":1,"HUM":1,"CVS":1,"DJT":1,"ELV":1},"content_text":"据环球网，在美国2024年总统选举首场电视辩论中，现任总统拜登和前任总统特朗普激烈交锋，争论焦点包括阿富汗撤军、俄乌冲突等问题。双方进行了激烈的“人身攻击”，下场“舌战”定于9月10日。民调数据显示，截至6月25日，特朗普在全国民调中平均领先拜登1个百分点；在关键“摇摆州”，特朗普平均领先3.2个百分点。\n财经金融博客Zerohedge点评称，市场开始积极消化共和党/特朗普在11月获胜的可能性。巴克莱策略师们在最新报告中表示，随着美国前总统特朗普在11月5日大选中取代现总统拜登的可能性似乎增强。\n巴克莱认为，市场应该考虑到未来几年通胀率高于目标的显著风险。这一观点与此前16位诺奖经济学奖得主联名信相呼应，这些经济学家们的共识是，特朗普就是“通胀炸弹”。\n根据高盛交易部门的数据，周五市场的整体活动水平“爆炸式增长”，交易量比过去两周增加了32%，相比之下，交易量比10天移动平均值仅增加了1%，凸显今天市场的活跃。\n高盛表示，总的来说，他们的交易部门的卖出活动比市场平均水平高3%，对冲基金和长期投资者都倾向于抛售：\n\n对冲基金的抛售增加了2%，主要是因为科技和金融行业的卖盘超过了非必需消费品和材料类股票的买盘。\n长期投资者的抛售增加了14%，非必需消费品类股票的抛售更大，尤其是在耐克令人失望的业绩公布后。其他抛售较多的领域包括必需消费品、医疗保健和工业类股。科技、能源、金融和房地产投资信托（REIT）出现买盘兴趣。\n\n高盛的“共和党/民主党”股票篮子周五大幅跑赢大盘：\n\n周五，虽然美国5月的核心PCE物价指数显示通胀降温，但美国国债收益率在开盘后逆转了通胀数据刚公布后的下跌，长期美债收益率收盘时飙升。美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨9.59个基点，报4.3823%，20年期美债收益率涨12.89个基点，30年期美债收益率涨13.45个基点。短期美债收益率涨势温和，两年期美债收益率涨2.07个基点，刷新日高至4.7327%。\n\n一些人认为，周五美债的走势反映了特朗普胜选的预期，当然，季度末/月末的再平衡流动也影响资产波动。\n巴克莱策略师们表示，交易很明确，买入通胀保护资产以为特朗普胜选做准备，具体来说，在美国国债市场买入通胀对冲资产。这一简单的交易是押注5年期通胀保值债券（TIPS）将跑赢常规5年期国债，从而导致两者之间的收益率差扩大。\n周五当日，医疗保健类股多数走高，加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师Ben Hendrix称，拜登的现场表现黯淡无光，预计市场对管理式医疗/医疗保健行业的信心将更加高涨。如果特朗普重新入主白宫，预计医疗保健行业将迎来更加友好的监管环境，意味着联邦贸易委员会或者美国司法部针对垂直整合战略的审查将放松、甚至被取消，估计那将尤其利好联合健康。\n联合健康（UNH）收涨4.7%，哈门那（HUM）一度涨约7.3%，西维斯（CVS）一度涨约2.8%，Elevance Health（ELV）一度涨约1.9%。\n特朗普媒体科技（DJT）美股盘前一度涨超11%，不过最终收盘时大逆转，大幅收跌超10%。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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