英伟达会是又一个思科吗 AI产品需求前景成为多空争论焦点

环球市场播报06-27

英伟达股价的大幅波动再次引发对这家AI芯片巨头涨势持久性的争论。虽然该股的股价和竞争威胁是主要担忧，但有一个变量很关键，那就是客户对AI芯片的需求能持续多久。　　过去一年多来，英伟达的客户一直在抢购该公司能生产的所有人工智能加速器芯片。这使得英伟达上一财年的收入翻了一番，达到610亿美元。本财年销售额料将再增长近一倍。　　看涨该股的人认为，随着越来越多公司寻求利用人工智能来帮助扩大业务、...

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The prospect of AI product demand has become the focus of long-short debate","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1,"CSCO":1,"AMZN":0.7,"MSFT":0.7,"META":0.7,"GOOG":0.7},"content_text":"英伟达股价的大幅波动再次引发对这家AI芯片巨头涨势持久性的争论。虽然该股的股价和竞争威胁是主要担忧，但有一个变量很关键，那就是客户对AI芯片的需求能持续多久 。\n　　过去一年多来，英伟达的客户一直在抢购该公司能生产的所有人工智能加速器芯片。这使得英伟达上一财年的收入翻了一番，达到610亿美元。本财年销售额料将再增长近一倍。\n\n　　看涨该股的人认为，随着越来越多公司寻求利用人工智能来帮助扩大业务、创造新产品和提高效率，对AI芯片的支出才刚刚开始。英伟达的收入和利润增长将推动该股走高。\n　　但对于空头来说，AI能否不负众望并带来足够的投资回报仍然存在很多不确定性。如果不能带来令人满意的回报，那么需求势将降温，英伟达的高估值将无法支撑，目前英伟达股票的动态市销率是22倍，堪称标普500指数最昂贵的成份股。\n　　Evercore Wealth Management的合伙人兼投资组合经理Michael Kirkbride称，这是他对英伟达最大的担忧，尽管仍然看好该股。\n　　他认为，“一个较长期的风险是AI最终被证明失败。如果它不能成为下一个互联网，而只是下一个电信公司的话，那很多钱就白花了”。\n　　Kirkbride指的是在20世纪90年代，人们预期互联网流量将快速增长，并因此耗费巨资建设电信网络，最终流量虽然增长，但速度相当缓慢。巨额支出和过于乐观的预测帮助思科等公司股票涨到了它们20多年后仍未超越的水平。\n　　英伟达短短三天内暴跌13%、市值蒸发4300亿美元的情况让投资者尝到了从云端跌下的滋味。该股迄今已经收复了那三天的一半失地，但周四股价又下挫了1.3%，因为美光科技的业绩展望表明某些情况下对人工智能的预期已经过度。\n\n　　推荐阅读：英伟达营收增长太快 华尔街都跟不上了\n　　英伟达最大客户微软、Meta Platforms、亚马逊和Alphabet过去四个季度的资本支出总计1500亿美元，其中很大一部分流向在AI芯片市场占据主导地位的英伟达。\n　　这些公司不但承诺今年会继续购买，许多还表示他们计划增加支出。\n　　路博迈的高级投资组合经理，以在金融危机前做空次级抵押贷款而成名的Steve Eisman表示，客户在AI产品上的投入将支持英伟达继续大幅上涨。\n　　推荐阅读：知名投资者Steve Eisman力挺英伟达 认为无需担忧高估值\n　　DA Davidson的Gil Luria则没有那么笃定。 他是华尔街为数不多的只给了英伟达持有评级的分析师之一。他承认像微软和亚马逊这样的云服务提供商可能会在未来一两年内对AI芯片“贪得无厌”，但在那之后能不能保持这种热情就很大不确定性了。\n　　“这些客户必须看到非常可观的投资回报才能证明增加数据中心设备和数据中心支出是合理的，”Luria说。“在这种预期兑现前，对英伟达2026年及以后的期望看起来非常非常激进，到目前为止他们的回报与支出相比简直微不足道”。\n　　Gabelli Funds的投资组合经理John Belton承认，客户投资回报不足可能成为英伟达未来的一个问题，但他觉得现在没有理由放弃该股。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：李桐","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2446552158"}