亚马逊大战Temu！花旗仍看涨拼多多

华尔街见闻06-28

以低价策略迅速在海外扩张的Temu让亚马逊有了强烈的危机感。近日，据The Information等多家媒体报道，亚马逊计划在其购物网站上推出“折扣/低价商店”，专门销售从中国仓库直接运送到海外消费者手中的廉价商品。亚马逊的这一新板块将提供白牌且价格低于20美元的时尚产品、家居用品和日常必需品，订单需要9到11天时间送达客户。亚马逊在最近的一次闭门会议上告诉中国卖家，它将在今年夏天开始签约商家，...

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Citi remains bullish on Pinduoduo","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9,"AMZN":0.8},"content_text":"以低价策略迅速在海外扩张的Temu让亚马逊有了强烈的危机感。\n近日，据The Information等多家媒体报道，亚马逊计划在其购物网站上推出“折扣/低价商店”，专门销售从中国仓库直接运送到海外消费者手中的廉价商品。亚马逊的这一新板块将提供白牌且价格低于20美元的时尚产品、家居用品和日常必需品，订单需要9到11天时间送达客户。亚马逊在最近的一次闭门会议上告诉中国卖家，它将在今年夏天开始签约商家，并在秋季开始接受库存。\n“低价赛道”正在成为海外跨境电商市场竞争的新战事。无视Temu、理解Temu、成为Temu，亚马逊似乎也在卷价格的路上一去不复返。亚马逊此举能否阻击Temu的扩张并抢占低价市场？花旗认为，定价权与仓储成本是关键。\nTemu是拼多多旗下跨境电商平台，在亚马逊大战Temu之际，花旗仍看涨拼多多，将其目标价上调至198美元，约有51%的上涨空间。\n亚马逊大战Temu，花旗：定价权与仓储成本是关键\n花旗6月27日的最新研报指出，亚马逊的低价商店初始阶段只提供有限的产品类别且上限为20美元，因此花旗认为，短期内亚马逊的低价商店无法在美国消费者群体中造成很大吸引力，对Temu的运营带来的影响可能很小。\n\n据介绍，亚马逊低价商店有价格上限和重量/尺寸限制。例如，屏幕保护膜、钥匙链、发夹、化妆刷等的上限为7美元，毛衣、外套、靴子等的上限为20美元，包裹重量不得超过1磅，尺寸不得超过14x8x5英寸。\n亚马逊低价商店与Temu平台销售产品种类相似、都采取“白牌低价”策略，且两者均是由平台负责物流、流量等运营流程，卖家承担选品。但在定价权上两者截然不同。\nTemu平台不收取卖家佣金但拥有定价权，而亚马逊低价商店的定价权是在商家。亚马逊低价商店卖家有选品权、自主定价权和活动参与权，平台有物流履约、站内和站外的广告推广、佣金收取。\n花旗研报指出，如果后续亚马逊的低价商店获得成功，并向其他提供更多产品种类的中国卖家开放，可能会降低Temu对卖家的吸引力，尤其是那些更愿意保留定价权、而不是被Temu挤压的高质量卖家。\n除了定价权外，仓储成本也是卖家考虑的一个关键因素。花旗认为，中国卖家可能会欢迎一个保留定价权、选品权和节省跨境物流费用的替代电商平台。\nTemu最近推出了半托管及本地仓储模式。Temu已经开始让卖家将库存存放在美国当地的仓库，而不是从中国发货。而亚马逊低价商店则是从中国仓库直接发货，不需要商家发货至FBA仓（海外亚马逊仓库，由亚马逊完成后续配送及售后服务）。\n花旗指出，中国仓库的仓储费用将明显低于FBA仓库，预计成本节省45%。在节省仓储成本方面，亚马逊低价商店似乎更占优势。\n不过，据一财报道，亚马逊目前并未公开针对“低价商品”的相关优惠政策，一些商家对最终是否加入该项目仍持观望态度。“作为商家我们关注过去在亚马逊平台上卖的产品进入低价商店后能有什么样的优惠政策，要交的佣金是否低于过去，营销费如何核算，物流成本是否优惠等。”一位商家表示。\n然而，低价商品商家往往对运营成本相当敏感。“假设有个商品售价10美元，佣金按照15%的比例算是1.5美元，物流成本可能是3.5美元，加在一起就占到售价的50%，假设推广流量费用占15%，那么商品生产成本占售价的比重非常小，商家更关注运营成本。”一位商家认为，亚马逊能否顺利吸引商家加入该项目，还需观察其后续的收费细则发布。\n花旗将拼多多目标价上调至198美元，约51%的上涨空间\nTemu是拼多多旗下跨境电商平台，自2022年Temu在美国推出以来，便一路在海外市场高歌猛进。\n对于拼多多，花旗仍坚定看多。花旗将拼多多美股目标价上调为198美元，意味着公司股价还有约51%的上涨空间。花旗预计，2024年至2026年，拼多多市盈率为0.5倍，复合年增长率为24%。\n此外，花旗予以拼多多“买入”但“高风险”的评级，花旗分析称，拼多多平台用户行为变化快于预期，用户流失率上升、用户增长势头放缓；同时行业竞争加剧，对拼多多的盈利趋势构成压力。\n\n日前，摩根士丹利分析师Eddy Wang等研报中测算了Temu的全球扩张潜力。\n大摩指出，Temu的全球扩张战略正处于关键时期，其市场潜力和盈利前景令人瞩目，该平台最快有望在2025年实现盈利，且GMV增长潜力巨大，2030年有望达到1300亿美元。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2446528563"}