“三巫日”大结局：标普500尾盘成交量飙升，英伟达“过山车”终以下跌收盘

华尔街见闻06-22

隔夜“美股三巫日”，美国证券交易所迎来了180亿股的换手，较过去三个月的平均水平激增55%，标普500尾盘成交量比平日激增30%。在周五到期的5.5万亿美元各类证券衍生品里，与英伟达相关的衍生品合约价值高居第二，仅次于标普500指数。周五，美股“三巫日”拉下帷幕，华尔街近5.5万亿美元规模的期权到期，叠加季末指数调整引发的ETF大调仓，市场交易剧烈波动。美国交易所当日迎来了180亿股的换手，较过去...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717836><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>隔夜“美股三巫日”，美国证券交易所迎来了180亿股的换手，较过去三个月的平均水平激增55%，标普500尾盘成交量比平日激增30%。在周五到期的5.5万亿美元各类证券衍生品里，与英伟达相关的衍生品合约价值高居第二，仅次于标普500指数。周五，美股“三巫日”拉下帷幕，华尔街近5.5万亿美元规模的期权到期，叠加季末指数调整引发的ETF大调仓，市场交易剧烈波动。美国交易所当日迎来了180亿股的换手，较过去...</p>\n\n<a 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down","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ad0c945d337003803f74f31bb1e6a4","symbols_score_info":{"VOO":1,"SPY":1,"NVDA":1,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"隔夜“美股三巫日”，美国证券交易所迎来了180亿股的换手，较过去三个月的平均水平激增55%，标普500尾盘成交量比平日激增30%。在周五到期的5.5万亿美元各类证券衍生品里，与英伟达相关的衍生品合约价值高居第二，仅次于标普500指数。周五，美股“三巫日”拉下帷幕，华尔街近5.5万亿美元规模的期权到期，叠加季末指数调整引发的ETF大调仓，市场交易剧烈波动。美国交易所当日迎来了180亿股的换手，较过去三个月的平均水平激增了55%，标普500指数尾盘交易量比日常平均水平激增30%。其中英伟达是当之无愧的主角。据统计，在周五到期的5.5万亿美元各类证券衍生品里，与英伟达有关的衍生品合约价值高居第二，仅次于标普500指数。美股的“三巫日”是指股票期权、股指期货和股指期权合约在同一交易日同时到期。这种情况每年发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。“三巫日”大量期权到期，意味着交易商需要调整仓位，因此这天市场交易量通常会大幅增加，导致价格波动剧烈。市场分析师指出：规模高达800亿美元的科技行业ETF（代码XLK），将是这次指数调整的关键。由于重仓股持股比例的限制，XLK需要在周五卖掉部分苹果股票，买入英伟达。分析师称：“调整后英伟达在指数权重将大幅上升，而苹果则会有所下降。考虑到超大市值的科技股（尤其是英伟达）对ETF指数的重要性，交易员在当天晚些时候对过大的波动保持谨慎是合理的。”在“三巫日”这天，标普500指数小幅下跌至5465点，尾盘交易量比日常平均水平高出30%。英伟达盘中一度下跌约5%，反弹后尾盘再次下跌，最终收跌3%。过去两个交易日市值累计蒸发了超过2200亿美元。条条大路通英伟达，分析师警惕要注意AI热让科技行业估值过高美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett指出，AI狂热让英伟达在本周一度成为全球市值最大的公司后，也推动了创纪录的资金流入科技ETF。据EPFR全球数据显示，截至6月19日的一周内，约87亿美元流入科技ETF。Hartnett表示：“条条大路通英伟达”的交易，在法国政治动荡的情况下再次得到支持。然而，尽管投资者仍觉得需要更多与AI相关的投资，“所有资产配置者都担心股权集中风险。”Truist咨询服务公司的Keith Lerner表示，鉴于自11月以来科技行业在他们的“超配”建议下大幅跑赢标普500指数，该公司将科技行业评级下调至“中性”。Lerner说：“尽管我们对科技股的长期前景依然看好，但从短期来看，该行业估值似乎已经超出了合理范围，我们不会追逐该行业。话虽如此，科技股距离‘泡沫’还有一段距离，我们相信围绕AI的长期利好因素将继续存在。”这次三巫日的剧烈波动可能只是个开端，投资者需要为2024年下半年和美联储下一步行动做准备。瑞银全球财富管理的Solita Marcelli指出，“2024年下半年是转型和波动的时期，投资者应该准备迎接戏剧性变化。”奥本海默资产管理的市场分析师John 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