如何看苹果AI后续升级方向？

中信证券研究06-23

考虑到苹果部分AI功能落地仅限少数机型，叠加后续iPhone新品有望在算力、大模型落地、散热、光学等方向持续创新，我们认为iPhone有望迎来较强换机动能，步入出货上行通道。中信证券发布研报称，在AI体验持续优化的基础上，苹果新一轮的换机将来自于AI驱动。中信证券研究团队看好在庞大用户基础下的iPhone换机周期，iPhone有望在2025年迎来较强换机动能，预计...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Ark IIG
06-23
Ark IIG
12proMax还在坚挺中，换不动了。期待大的以旧换新

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2445674715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50ebc3732cef8d6bf4f3374389a977a","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-06-23 06:58","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2445674715","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"如何看苹果AI后续升级方向？","media":"中信证券研究","content":"<div>\n<p>考虑到苹果部分AI功能落地仅限少数机型，叠加后续iPhone新品有望在算力、大模型落地、散热、光学等方向持续创新，我们认为iPhone有望迎来较强换机动能，步入出货上行通道。              中信证券发布研报称，在AI体验持续优化的基础上，苹果新一轮的换机将来自于AI驱动。中信证券研究团队看好在庞大用户基础下的iPhone换机周期，iPhone有望在2025年迎来较强换机动能，预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HlIvmiwMZfC3SvEr2Ypy5g?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zxzqyj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如何看苹果AI后续升级方向？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如何看苹果AI后续升级方向？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-23 06:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HlIvmiwMZfC3SvEr2Ypy5g?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D><strong>中信证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>考虑到苹果部分AI功能落地仅限少数机型，叠加后续iPhone新品有望在算力、大模型落地、散热、光学等方向持续创新，我们认为iPhone有望迎来较强换机动能，步入出货上行通道。              中信证券发布研报称，在AI体验持续优化的基础上，苹果新一轮的换机将来自于AI驱动。中信证券研究团队看好在庞大用户基础下的iPhone换机周期，iPhone有望在2025年迎来较强换机动能，预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HlIvmiwMZfC3SvEr2Ypy5g?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD","symbol_name":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HlIvmiwMZfC3SvEr2Ypy5g?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D","article_id":"2445674715","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50ebc3732cef8d6bf4f3374389a977a"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2445674715","pubTimestamp":1719097131,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"zxzqyj","name":"中信证券研究"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"坚定看多苹果软硬件创新周期。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓"},"translate_title":"How do you see the direction of Apple's AI follow-up upgrade?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a9e3ab235ddebac6819b9a0f3a6c1c","symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1},"content_text":"考虑到苹果部分AI功能落地仅限少数机型，叠加后续iPhone新品有望在算力、大模型落地、散热、光学等方向持续创新，我们认为iPhone有望迎来较强换机动能，步入出货上行通道。              中信证券发布研报称，在AI体验持续优化的基础上，苹果新一轮的换机将来自于AI驱动。中信证券研究团队看好在庞大用户基础下的iPhone换机周期，iPhone有望在2025年迎来较强换机动能，预计2024/2025/2026年iPhone出货量或达2.25+/ 2.4+/ 2.5+亿部，步入出货上行通道。展望后续，苹果创新大年的幕布正在拉开，坚定看多苹果软硬件创新周期。以下为研报摘要：我们认为，为进一步抢占数据和流量的分发入口以尽量提升用户对Apple Intelligence本身的依存度，后续苹果的自有模型能力有必要持续强化，具体表现为端侧提升算力+运行内存容量，增加模型参数量；云端则有望加大算力布局。在AI体验持续优化的基础上，我们认为苹果新一轮的换机将来自于AI驱动。我们看好在庞大用户基础下的iPhone换机周期，我们认为iPhone有望在2025年迎来较强换机动能，预计2024/2025/2026年iPhone出货量或达2.25+/ 2.4+/ 2.5+亿部，步入出货上行通道。展望后续，苹果创新大年的幕布正在拉开，坚定看多苹果软硬件创新周期。Apple Intelligence现状如何？——端侧3B模型媲美主流7B模型，云端比肩GPT-3.5-Turbo。苹果AI落地由Apple  Intelligence自有模型（端侧30亿参数大模型+私密云云端大模型）+ChatGPT  4o联合完成，算力足够情况下计算依赖于终端，更复杂的场景则使用私密云计算，ChatGPT调用顺序则相对靠后。苹果高级副总裁Craig  Federighi在WWDC主题演讲后的活动中表示，后续苹果还将与OpenAI之外的其他第三方模型合作（如谷歌的Gemini模型）。我们认为，苹果将第三方模型作为备选方案，底气来自自有模型的能力已经相对优秀。根据苹果官网，从大模型的人类评估得分上看：1）端侧3B级模型和主流7B级模型（Mistral-7B、Gemma-7B）以及Phi-3-mini（3.8B）相比，苹果胜出+平手概率>65%。2）云端私密云大模型和DBRX-Instruct、GPT-3.5-Turbo、Mixtral-8x22B相比，苹果胜出+平手概率>70%。进一步的，考虑到苹果自有模型的调用优先级排在第三方模型之前，我们认为，为进一步抢占数据和流量的分发入口以尽量提升用户对Apple  Intelligence本身的依存度，后续苹果的自有模型能力有必要持续强化。后续苹果AI发展思路？——端侧提升算力+运行内存，增加模型参数量；云端加大算力布局。 1）端侧：算力+运行内存提升是主逻辑，带动SLP、散热、电池迭代。目前苹果端侧支撑30亿参数大模型（考虑到23年发布的高通骁龙8Gen3面向70亿参数大语言模型可实现每秒生成20个Token，我们预计今年安卓旗舰手机端侧模型参数量可能破百），后续在Scaling  law驱使下参数量仍需要进一步提升，倒逼算力升级（我们预计有望从去年A17 Pro  的35TOPS提升至今年40TOPS以上，明年则有望达45-50TOPS）、运行内存升级（iPhone15系列6Gb起步，我们预计今年新机有望8Gb起步）以及SLP、散热（VC均热板）、充电功率、电池等配套环节升级。2）云端：苹果后续有望加大服务器采购，加速自研推理芯片。据Trendforce援引Mac  Rumors消息，富士康目前正在组装包含M2 Ultra（M2  Ultra采用苹果的UltraFusion定制封装技术，通过interposer将两枚M2  Max芯片连接起来，提供超过2.5TB/s的低延迟处理器间带宽，此前M2 Ultra仅用于高端Mac Studio和Mac  Pro产品）的Apple AI服务器，并计划在2025年底组装由M4芯片驱动的Apple  AI服务器（我们预计苹果自研芯片用于推理端，训练端仍将依托于英伟达）。据C114援引产业链消息，苹果2023/2024年分别采购约2000-3000/1.8万-2万台服务器。从产品创新到需求落地，传导逻辑是怎样的？1）回顾上一轮换机周期：苹果上一轮换机发生在2020-2021年的5G换机。2020年10月13日，苹果推出其第一款5G手机iPhone12系列，2020年第四季度出货量上同比增速开始显著上行，而这一趋势持续到2021年三季度（据IDC，2020Q4-2021Q3出货同比增速分别为18.6%/50.5%/18.2%/22.7%）。全年维度下，2020年iPhone实现出货2.03亿台（同比1200万部增量），2021年iPhone出货2.36亿台（同比3300万部增量）。而后，iPhone再次进入存量周期，2022-2023年iPhone分别为2.25/2.31亿部。2）聚焦本轮换机周期：我们认为苹果新一轮的换机将来自于AI驱动（受8G运行内存容量的门槛影响，现有手机中只有iPhone15  Pro和iPhone 15 Pro Max机型才能支持Apple  Intelligence）。据statistics，截至2023年，全球存量活跃iPhone设备14.6亿台，即使抛开2023年出货的2.3亿台iPhone新机，活跃设备数也高达12.3亿台，因此由“AI体验+硬件排他”所带来的换机动力值得期待。值得注意的是，我们认为本轮AI所带来的换机趋势比5G升级带来的换机趋势将更强，因为苹果AI落地的差异化优势更强（具体来看，5G换机周期中，安卓苹果没有本质不同，都是实现更高的网络传输速率；AI换机周期中，苹果系统级AI优势显著，安卓端尚未打通跨应用数据调用，短期身位明显拉开），此外AI有望为用户带来更为优质的使用体验。因此，我们看好在庞大用户基础下的iPhone换机周期，我们认为iPhone有望在2025年迎来较强换机动能，预计2024/2025/2026年iPhone出货量或达2.25+/2.4+/2.5+亿部，步入出货上行通道。风险因素：消费者换机意愿不及预期；终端硬件成本上升影响需求；国际产业环境变化和贸易摩擦加剧；AI商业化进度不及预期；硬件端算力升级进度不及预期；大模型迭代速度不及预期。 投资策略：考虑到苹果部分AI功能落地仅限少数机型，叠加后续iPhone新品有望在算力、大模型落地、散热、光学等方向持续创新，我们认为iPhone有望迎来较强换机动能，步入出货上行通道。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":319786158268568,"gmtCreate":1719103029000,"gmtModify":1719103030893,"author":{"id":"3497856541848999","authorId":"3497856541848999","name":"Ark IIG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ea120142d3ed0cc47755dc7d0a37390","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3497856541848999","authorIdStr":"3497856541848999"},"htmlText":"12proMax还在坚挺中，换不动了。期待大的以旧换新","listText":"12proMax还在坚挺中，换不动了。期待大的以旧换新","text":"12proMax还在坚挺中，换不动了。期待大的以旧换新","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319786158268568","repostId":2445674715,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2445674715"}