“美股最大空头”：美股如何避免逾20%的潜在回调？

金十数据06-19

即使美股主要股指继续创下历史新高，华尔街最大空头对美股的悲观展望仍未动摇。摩根大通全球市场首席策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）对2024年底标普500指数的价格目标为4200点，这不仅代表了标普500指数从当前水平下跌23%的可能性，也是华尔街最低的价格目标。但科拉诺维奇为投资者提供了一个“可能发生什么好事”的情景，以防止他的悲观展望成为现实。科拉诺维奇在周一的一份...

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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=141374&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>即使美股主要股指继续创下历史新高，华尔街最大空头对美股的悲观展望仍未动摇。\n摩根大通全球市场首席策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）对2024年底标普500指数的价格目标为4200点，这不仅代表了标普500指数从当前水平下跌23%的可能性，也是华尔街最低的价格目标。\n但科拉诺维奇为投资者提供了一个“可能发生什么好事”的情景，以防止他的悲观展望成为现实。\n科拉诺维奇在周一的一份...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=141374&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2023250504.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS 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more than 20%?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7522911a558097d0dbdaba41798989","symbols_score_info":{"JPM":1,"MS":1,"EVR":1,"EVR.AU":1,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"即使美股主要股指继续创下历史新高，华尔街最大空头对美股的悲观展望仍未动摇。\n摩根大通全球市场首席策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）对2024年底标普500指数的价格目标为4200点，这不仅代表了标普500指数从当前水平下跌23%的可能性，也是华尔街最低的价格目标。\n但科拉诺维奇为投资者提供了一个“可能发生什么好事”的情景，以防止他的悲观展望成为现实。\n科拉诺维奇在周一的一份报告中说道，“我们谨慎的立场基于以下观点：美股任何上行都必须来自盈利增长，而我们看到即使在最好的假设情况下，盈利增长也不足以抵消美股下行风险。”\n科拉诺维奇预测标普500指数的盈利增长将低于平均水平，暗示该指数2024年的每股收益将仅为225美元，而2023年的每股收益为221美元。这远低于华尔街每股240美元的预测，也低于标普500指数过去12个月每股228美元的平均收益。\n以下是根据报告，美股要避免23%回撤所需的条件：\n科拉诺维奇说指出，“要让美股避免超过20%的修正，你必须相信科技行业将在短期内成为更广泛的经济的重要增长驱动力”。但科拉诺维奇并不认同这种乐观的看法，反而建议投资者在投入现金之前保持耐心。\n他写道，“虽然我们相信科技行业将继续在未来几年成为经济增长的关键驱动因素，但我们并不认为它对各个行业的公司利润和损失的影响会如此突然地变得如此深远。因此，我们对此保持谨慎，预计美国经济增长将减弱，美股将出现修正，投资者将找到更好的入场点。”\n科拉诺维奇对美股的看跌立场并不总是如此孤立，但最近，一些更悲观的股票策略师改变了他们的观点。\n周一，Evercore ISI策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）将其标普500指数价格目标从此前的4750点上调至6000点。\n上个月，长期持有美股悲观看法的摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）变得乐观，并将其标普500指数价格目标从此前的4500点上调至5400点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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