Be Cautious But Don't Panic Here

seekingalpha06-20

Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of ...

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火火先生
06-20
火火先生
最近涨得太多了，盘前也涨得太多了

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe Cautious But Don't Panic Here\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-20 11:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700057-be-cautious-but-dont-panic-here><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700057-be-cautious-but-dont-panic-here\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BKDWB100.SGD","symbol_name":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700057-be-cautious-but-dont-panic-here","article_id":"2444253983","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444253983","pubTimestamp":1718854697,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of companies with stretched technical indicators, potentially signaling a need for a pullback in their stock prices.While caution is advised, there is no need for panic, as pullback periods are necessary for resetting valuations and creating new buying opportunities in the market.   Jonathan KitchenI've been very bullish on many high-quality stocks during the recent run-up. I've mainly been buying tech and AI-centric stocks, many of which were hammered relentlessly during the 2022 tech crash and widely dismissed and undervalued by the market. Remember Nvidia  at $108 ?Nvidia 50 P/E Is Not Cheap Anymore EPS estimates While this year's P/E multiple is around 50, next year's P/E ratio is around 38, which is far from cheap. Additionally, next year's EPS estimate range is wide, from $2.12 to $4.75. Theref","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","GOOGL":"谷歌A","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","MU":"美光科技","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","META":"Meta Platforms","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4549":"软银资本持仓"},"translate_title":"在这里要谨慎但不要惊慌","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1,"GOOGL":1,"GOOG":1,"META":1,"MU":0.9},"content_text":"Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of companies with stretched technical indicators, potentially signaling a need for a pullback in their stock prices.While caution is advised, there is no need for panic, as pullback periods are necessary for resetting valuations and creating new buying opportunities in the market.   Jonathan KitchenI've been very bullish on many high-quality stocks during the recent run-up. I've mainly been buying tech and AI-centric stocks, many of which were hammered relentlessly during the 2022 tech crash and widely dismissed and undervalued by the market. Remember Nvidia (NVDA) at $108 (split-adjusted $10.80)? How about Meta (META), below $90, or Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), below $85? Positive sentiment has recently caused many stocks to skyrocket, with many names turning vertical. While I'm not making a market-top prediction, it's crucial to highlight the overbought technical conditions in some leading companies. Fundamentally, many high-quality stocks, once considered cheap, now appear relatively expensive. This sharp shift in value raises concerns about their sustainability in the current market, and investors should be mindful of these potential risks. Trees don't grow to the sky, and it's a red flag when mega-cap stocks go vertical. This latest surge in stock prices could trigger a correction, potentially leading to compelling buying opportunities. It's important to maintain a balanced view and consider the potential risks and rewards. Nvidia: RSI - Over 80 NVDA (StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts & Technical Analysis Tools)Nvidia is an excellent company, and its AI story is solid. Also, the stock has appreciated by about 12x since it hit my buy-in target, bottoming less than two years ago. Moreover, at a staggering $3.34T, Nvidia is the most valuable company globally. Nonetheless, we can't ignore the obvious. The RSI is over 80 here, the CCI recently hit around 300, the stock is about 100% above its 200-day MA, and volume is declining. Moreover, the full stochastic has tended above 80 for roughly six weeks. Visually, we see Nvidia has turned vertical, and we could soon see a technical pullback to normalize the conditions. Fundamentally, we know about Nvidia's massive AI potential, but the bullish thesis is not without risks. Nonetheless, the market continues bidding Nvidia perpetually higher as if it is the only AI stock in town. The multi-trillion-dollar question is when is it too much? Nvidia 50 P/E Is Not Cheap Anymore EPS estimates (Stock Market Analysis & Tools for Investors)While this year's P/E multiple is around 50, next year's P/E ratio is around 38, which is far from cheap. Additionally, next year's EPS estimate range is wide, from $2.12 to $4.75. Therefore, Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is around 65 in a worst-case scenario and about 28 in the most bullish case outcome. Despite this diverse estimate range, the stock trades as if lower earnings are impossible, and only the bullish case scenario exists. This dynamic is concerning because even a minor misstep from Nvidia could result in a dramatic downside for the stock.  Another factor we should consider is that Nvidia is a hardware company. While it was highly profitable in the initial stages of the AI boom, its profitability should moderate over time. Nvidia trades at a nose-bleeding 28 times this year's estimated sales, which is exceptionally high, especially for a hardware stock. My optimal buy-in zone for Nvidia is the $110-100 level.  Broadcom: RSI - Over 80 (Possible Blowoff Top) AVGO (StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts & Technical Analysis Tools)Broadcom \"AVGO\" is one of the hottest AI stocks and maybe second only to Nvidia. AVGO has increased in value considerably since I discussed buying it on a pullback several months ago. The stock recently surged on better-than-expected earnings news, but the move looks extreme.  The RSI is over 80 now, and the CCI spiked over 400, illustrating exceptionally overbought technical conditions. Moreover, the stock reached a new high in the most recent trading session, only to close around its lows, possibly signaling buyer exhaustion and illustrating a blowoff top. Also, Broadcom added about $200 billion in market cap value in the move and is now approaching a $1 T valuation. AVGO now trades around 16 times sales and has a P/E ratio of around 38. It's questionable whether it should be valued this richly here, and there seems to be an increased probability that we may see a pullback in Broadcom's stock. The optimal buy-in level may be around $1,600-1,500. Micron: RSI - Over 75 (Upside Down Hammer) MU (StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts & Technical Analysis Tools)Micron's stock has skyrocketed recently due to AI optimism. It's nearly doubled since I discussed buying it in late 2023. The RSI is around 75, the CCI is approaching 300, and other technical indicators suggest that technical conditions are considerably stretched here. Moreover, MU is about 65% above its 200-day MA, and it closed with a bearish upside-down hammer candle in the previous session. This dynamic suggests buyer exhaustion, and a considerable pullback could materialize. Technically, the target buy-in level is around $135-125 here.  Micron now trades around seven times sales and has a forward P/E ratio of about 17 (if it hits elevated estimates). While this may seem relatively inexpensive, it is a very high valuation for Micron because of the nature of its core memory business. Micron typically trades at a much lower P/E ratio as the market goes through cycles, and an oversupply of memory chips leads to lower prices and less profitability for Micron. This dynamic will likely not change because of AI, and Micron's stock may need a cool-off period before moving higher again.  The Bottom Line: Caution, Not Panic I am not attempting to entice panic, nor am I trying to ruin anyone's day. I am not a perma-bear, perma-bull, or a perma-anything for that matter. I am a straight shooter and call things the way I see them. I became bearish around the peak in 2021 and increasingly bullish when the market bottomed in late 2022. We are not in an AI bubble, and the stock market could continue rallying for a long time.  Nonetheless, we need pullback periods because valuations and technical conditions need to reset to create new buying opportunities. Therefore, this is no time to panic, but increased caution is warranted, and we may see a pullback leading to considerable buying opportunities in future weeks. Despite the overheated technical conditions and the possibility of near turbulence, I am keeping my year-end target range for the S&P 500/SPX at 6K, and my Nasdaq year-end target remains 20,000.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":318878993367320,"gmtCreate":1718864807304,"gmtModify":1718864809266,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"最近涨得太多了，盘前也涨得太多了","listText":"最近涨得太多了，盘前也涨得太多了","text":"最近涨得太多了，盘前也涨得太多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318878993367320","repostId":2444253983,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2444253983","pubTimestamp":1718854697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2444253983?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-20 11:38","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Be Cautious But Don't Panic Here","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444253983","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of companies with stretched technical indicators, potentially signaling a need for a pullback in their stock prices.While caution is advised, there is no need for panic, as pullback periods are necessary for resetting valuations and creating new buying opportunities in the market.   Jonathan KitchenI've been very bullish on many high-quality stocks during the recent run-up. I've mainly been buying tech and AI-centric stocks, many of which were hammered relentlessly during the 2022 tech crash and widely dismissed and undervalued by the market. Remember Nvidia  at $108 ?Nvidia 50 P/E Is Not Cheap Anymore EPS estimates While this year's P/E multiple is around 50, next year's P/E ratio is around 38, which is far from cheap. Additionally, next year's EPS estimate range is wide, from $2.12 to $4.75. Theref","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.</li><li>Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of companies with stretched technical indicators, potentially signaling a need for a pullback in their stock prices.</li><li>While caution is advised, there is no need for panic, as pullback periods are necessary for resetting valuations and creating new buying opportunities in the market.</li></ul><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Jonathan Kitchen</p></figcaption></figure><p><span>I've been very bullish on many high-quality stocks during the recent run-up. I've mainly been buying tech and AI-centric stocks, many of which were hammered relentlessly during the 2022 tech crash and widely dismissed and undervalued by the market.</span></p> <p><span>Remember<span> Nvidia (</span></span>NVDA<span>) at $108 (split-adjusted $10.80)? How about Meta (</span>META<span>), below $90, or Google (</span>GOOG<span>) (</span>GOOGL<span>), below $85? Positive sentiment has recently caused many stocks to skyrocket, with many names turning vertical.</span></p> <p><span>While I'm not making a market-top prediction, it's crucial to highlight the overbought technical conditions in some leading companies. Fundamentally, many high-quality stocks, once considered cheap, now appear relatively expensive. This sharp shift in value raises concerns about their sustainability in the current market, and investors should be mindful of these potential risks.</span></p> <p><span>Trees don't grow to the sky, and it's a red flag when mega-cap stocks go vertical. This<span> latest surge in stock prices could trigger a correction, potentially leading to compelling buying opportunities. It's important to maintain a balanced view and consider the potential risks and rewards.</span></span></p> <h2>Nvidia: RSI - Over 80</h2> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"676\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/6/19/48200183-17187842311956193.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>NVDA <span>(StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts &amp; Technical Analysis Tools)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Nvidia is an excellent company, and its AI story is solid. Also, the stock has appreciated by about 12x since it hit my buy-in target, bottoming less than two years ago. Moreover, at a staggering $3.34T, Nvidia is the most valuable company globally.</p> <p>Nonetheless, we can't ignore the obvious. The RSI is over 80 here, the CCI recently hit around 300, the stock is about 100% above its 200-day MA, and volume is declining. Moreover, the full stochastic has tended above 80 for roughly six weeks. Visually, we see Nvidia has turned vertical, and we could soon see a technical pullback to normalize the conditions.</p> <p>Fundamentally, we know about Nvidia's massive AI potential, but the bullish thesis is not without risks. Nonetheless, the market continues bidding Nvidia perpetually higher as if it is the only AI stock in town. The multi-trillion-dollar question is when is it too much?</p> <h2>Nvidia 50 P/E Is Not Cheap Anymore</h2> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"203\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/6/19/48200183-1718785349267245.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>EPS estimates <span>(Stock Market Analysis &amp; Tools for Investors)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><span>While this year's P/E multiple is around 50, next year's P/E ratio is around 38, which is far from cheap. Additionally, next year's EPS estimate range is wide, from $2.12 to $4.75. Therefore, Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is around 65 in a worst-case scenario and about 28 in the most bullish case outcome.</span></p> <p><span>Despite this diverse estimate range, the stock trades as if lower earnings are impossible, and only the bullish case scenario exists. This dynamic is concerning because even a minor misstep from Nvidia could result in a dramatic downside for the stock. </span></p> <p><span>Another factor we should consider is that Nvidia is a hardware company. While it was highly profitable in the initial stages of the AI boom, its profitability should moderate over time. Nvidia trades at a nose-bleeding </span><span>28 times</span><span> this year's estimated sales, which is exceptionally high, especially for a hardware stock. My optimal buy-in zone for Nvidia is the $110-100 level. </span></p> <h2>Broadcom: RSI - Over 80 (Possible Blowoff Top)</h2> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"676\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/6/19/48200183-17187912359550533.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>AVGO <span>(StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts &amp; Technical Analysis Tools)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><span>Broadcom \"AVGO\" is one of the hottest AI stocks and maybe second only to Nvidia. AVGO has increased in value considerably since I discussed </span><span>buying it on a pullback</span><span> several months ago. The stock recently surged on better-than-expected earnings news, but the move looks extreme. </span></p> <p><span>The RSI is over 80 now, and the CCI spiked over 400, illustrating exceptionally overbought technical conditions. Moreover, the stock reached a new high in the most recent trading session, only to close around its lows, possibly signaling buyer exhaustion and illustrating a blowoff top.</span></p> <p><span>Also, Broadcom added about $200 billion in market cap value in the move and is now approaching a $1 T valuation. AVGO now trades around 16 times sales and has a P/E ratio of around 38. It's questionable whether it should be valued this richly here, and there seems to be an increased probability that we may see a pullback in Broadcom's stock. The optimal buy-in level may be around $1,600-1,500.</span></p> <h2>Micron: RSI - Over 75 (Upside Down Hammer)</h2> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"676\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/6/19/48200183-171879690137045.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>MU <span>(StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts &amp; Technical Analysis Tools)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><span>Micron's stock has skyrocketed recently due to AI optimism. It's nearly doubled since I </span><span>discussed buying</span><span> it in late 2023. The RSI is around 75, the CCI is approaching 300, and other technical indicators suggest that technical conditions </span><span>are considerably stretched</span><span> here. Moreover, MU is about 65% above its 200-day MA, and it closed with a bearish upside-down hammer candle in the previous session. This dynamic suggests buyer exhaustion, and a considerable pullback could materialize. Technically, the target buy-in level is around $135-125 here. </span></p> <p><span>Micron now trades around seven times sales and has a forward P/E ratio of about 17 (if it hits elevated estimates). While this may seem relatively inexpensive, it is a very high valuation for Micron because of the nature of its core memory business. Micron </span><span>typically</span><span> trades at a much lower P/E ratio as the market goes through cycles, and an oversupply of memory chips leads to lower prices and less profitability for Micron. This dynamic will likely not change because of AI, and Micron's stock may need a cool-off period before moving higher again. </span></p> <h2>The Bottom Line: Caution, Not Panic</h2> <p><span>I am not attempting to entice panic, nor am I trying to ruin anyone's day. I am not a perma-bear, perma-bull, or a perma-anything for that matter. I am a straight shooter and call things the way I see them. I became </span><span>bearish around the peak</span><span> in 2021 and increasingly </span><span>bullish when</span><span> the market bottomed in late 2022. We are not in an AI bubble, and the stock market could continue rallying for a long time.</span></p> <div></div> <p><span>Nonetheless, we need pullback periods because valuations and technical conditions need to reset to create new buying opportunities. Therefore, this is no time to panic, but increased caution is warranted, and we may see a pullback leading to considerable buying opportunities in future weeks. Despite the overheated technical conditions and the possibility of near turbulence, I am keeping my year-end target range for the S&amp;P 500/SPX at 6K, and my Nasdaq year-end target remains 20,000. </span></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be Cautious But Don't Panic Here</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe Cautious But Don't Panic Here\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-20 11:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700057-be-cautious-but-dont-panic-here><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700057-be-cautious-but-dont-panic-here\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/682530865/image_682530865.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","GOOGL":"谷歌A","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","MU":"美光科技","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","META":"Meta Platforms","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4549":"软银资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700057-be-cautious-but-dont-panic-here","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2444253983","content_text":"Many high-quality tech and AI-centric stocks have surged recently, raising concerns about overbought technical conditions and expensive valuations.Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are examples of companies with stretched technical indicators, potentially signaling a need for a pullback in their stock prices.While caution is advised, there is no need for panic, as pullback periods are necessary for resetting valuations and creating new buying opportunities in the market.   Jonathan KitchenI've been very bullish on many high-quality stocks during the recent run-up. I've mainly been buying tech and AI-centric stocks, many of which were hammered relentlessly during the 2022 tech crash and widely dismissed and undervalued by the market. Remember Nvidia (NVDA) at $108 (split-adjusted $10.80)? How about Meta (META), below $90, or Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), below $85? Positive sentiment has recently caused many stocks to skyrocket, with many names turning vertical. While I'm not making a market-top prediction, it's crucial to highlight the overbought technical conditions in some leading companies. Fundamentally, many high-quality stocks, once considered cheap, now appear relatively expensive. This sharp shift in value raises concerns about their sustainability in the current market, and investors should be mindful of these potential risks. Trees don't grow to the sky, and it's a red flag when mega-cap stocks go vertical. This latest surge in stock prices could trigger a correction, potentially leading to compelling buying opportunities. It's important to maintain a balanced view and consider the potential risks and rewards. Nvidia: RSI - Over 80 NVDA (StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts & Technical Analysis Tools)Nvidia is an excellent company, and its AI story is solid. Also, the stock has appreciated by about 12x since it hit my buy-in target, bottoming less than two years ago. Moreover, at a staggering $3.34T, Nvidia is the most valuable company globally. Nonetheless, we can't ignore the obvious. The RSI is over 80 here, the CCI recently hit around 300, the stock is about 100% above its 200-day MA, and volume is declining. Moreover, the full stochastic has tended above 80 for roughly six weeks. Visually, we see Nvidia has turned vertical, and we could soon see a technical pullback to normalize the conditions. Fundamentally, we know about Nvidia's massive AI potential, but the bullish thesis is not without risks. Nonetheless, the market continues bidding Nvidia perpetually higher as if it is the only AI stock in town. The multi-trillion-dollar question is when is it too much? Nvidia 50 P/E Is Not Cheap Anymore EPS estimates (Stock Market Analysis & Tools for Investors)While this year's P/E multiple is around 50, next year's P/E ratio is around 38, which is far from cheap. Additionally, next year's EPS estimate range is wide, from $2.12 to $4.75. Therefore, Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is around 65 in a worst-case scenario and about 28 in the most bullish case outcome. Despite this diverse estimate range, the stock trades as if lower earnings are impossible, and only the bullish case scenario exists. This dynamic is concerning because even a minor misstep from Nvidia could result in a dramatic downside for the stock.  Another factor we should consider is that Nvidia is a hardware company. While it was highly profitable in the initial stages of the AI boom, its profitability should moderate over time. Nvidia trades at a nose-bleeding 28 times this year's estimated sales, which is exceptionally high, especially for a hardware stock. My optimal buy-in zone for Nvidia is the $110-100 level.  Broadcom: RSI - Over 80 (Possible Blowoff Top) AVGO (StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts & Technical Analysis Tools)Broadcom \"AVGO\" is one of the hottest AI stocks and maybe second only to Nvidia. AVGO has increased in value considerably since I discussed buying it on a pullback several months ago. The stock recently surged on better-than-expected earnings news, but the move looks extreme.  The RSI is over 80 now, and the CCI spiked over 400, illustrating exceptionally overbought technical conditions. Moreover, the stock reached a new high in the most recent trading session, only to close around its lows, possibly signaling buyer exhaustion and illustrating a blowoff top. Also, Broadcom added about $200 billion in market cap value in the move and is now approaching a $1 T valuation. AVGO now trades around 16 times sales and has a P/E ratio of around 38. It's questionable whether it should be valued this richly here, and there seems to be an increased probability that we may see a pullback in Broadcom's stock. The optimal buy-in level may be around $1,600-1,500. Micron: RSI - Over 75 (Upside Down Hammer) MU (StockCharts.com | Advanced Financial Charts & Technical Analysis Tools)Micron's stock has skyrocketed recently due to AI optimism. It's nearly doubled since I discussed buying it in late 2023. The RSI is around 75, the CCI is approaching 300, and other technical indicators suggest that technical conditions are considerably stretched here. Moreover, MU is about 65% above its 200-day MA, and it closed with a bearish upside-down hammer candle in the previous session. This dynamic suggests buyer exhaustion, and a considerable pullback could materialize. Technically, the target buy-in level is around $135-125 here.  Micron now trades around seven times sales and has a forward P/E ratio of about 17 (if it hits elevated estimates). While this may seem relatively inexpensive, it is a very high valuation for Micron because of the nature of its core memory business. Micron typically trades at a much lower P/E ratio as the market goes through cycles, and an oversupply of memory chips leads to lower prices and less profitability for Micron. This dynamic will likely not change because of AI, and Micron's stock may need a cool-off period before moving higher again.  The Bottom Line: Caution, Not Panic I am not attempting to entice panic, nor am I trying to ruin anyone's day. I am not a perma-bear, perma-bull, or a perma-anything for that matter. I am a straight shooter and call things the way I see them. I became bearish around the peak in 2021 and increasingly bullish when the market bottomed in late 2022. We are not in an AI bubble, and the stock market could continue rallying for a long time.  Nonetheless, we need pullback periods because valuations and technical conditions need to reset to create new buying opportunities. Therefore, this is no time to panic, but increased caution is warranted, and we may see a pullback leading to considerable buying opportunities in future weeks. Despite the overheated technical conditions and the possibility of near turbulence, I am keeping my year-end target range for the S&P 500/SPX at 6K, and my Nasdaq year-end target remains 20,000.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2444253983"}