小摩顽固空头拒绝“翻多”：避免美股暴跌23%仅有一线希望

智通财经06-18

智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国主要股指继续创下历史新高，但华尔街大空头、摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic并未改变其悲观立场。不过，Kolanovic向投资者提供了一种“可能向好”的情景，这将阻止其悲观预测成为现实。Kolanovic预计2024年底标普500指数的目标位为4200点，这意味着该指数可能较当前水平下跌23%，这也是华尔街的最低目标位。Kolanovic在周一的...

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Kolanovic并未改变其悲观立场。不过，Kolanovic向投资者提供了一种“可能向好”的情景，这将阻止其悲观预测成为现实。Kolanovic预计2024年底标普500指数的目标位为4200点，这意味着该指数可能较当前水平下跌23%，这也是华尔街的最低目标位。Kolanovic在周一的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1136671.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0211326839.USD","symbol_name":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1136671.html","article_id":"2444171970","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444171970","pubTimestamp":1718693500,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Kolanovic预计2024年底标普500指数的目标位为4200点，这意味着该指数可能较当前水平下跌23%，这也是华尔街的最低目标位。Kolanovic预测，标普500指数的收益增长将低于平均水平，2024年该指数的每股收益将仅为225美元，而2023年为221美元。Kolanovic表示，要想避免美股暴跌20%，必须满足一个条件。尽管看空美股的不止Kolanovic，但最近一群看空股市的策略师改变了论调。周一，Evercore ISI策略师Julian 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stocks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TVIX":1,"SVXY":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VIXY":0.6,"VIXmain":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国主要股指继续创下历史新高，但华尔街大空头 、摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic并未改变其悲观立场。不过，Kolanovic向投资者提供了一种“可能向好”的情景，这将阻止其悲观预测成为现实。Kolanovic预计2024年底标普500指数的目标位为4200点，这意味着该指数可能较当前水平下跌23%，这也是华尔街的最低目标位。Kolanovic在周一的报告中称：“我们之所以采取谨慎的立场，是因为我们认为美股不存在重新评级的上行空间，任何上行空间都必须来自盈利增长，而我们认为即使在最好的情况下，盈利增长也不足以承担股票风险。”Kolanovic预测，标普500指数的收益增长将低于平均水平，2024年该指数的每股收益将仅为225美元，而2023年为221美元。Bloomberg的数据显示，这一预期远低于华尔街预测的240美元，也低于标普500指数过去12个月的228美元。Kolanovic表示，要想避免美股暴跌20%，必须满足一个条件。他表示：“为了避免股市出现20%以上的回调，你必须相信科技将在短期内成为整体经济增长更具意义的驱动力。”但Kolanovic并不认同这种乐观的前景，而是建议投资者在投入资金之前保持耐心。他表示：“虽然我们相信科技将在未来几年继续成为经济增长的关键驱动力，但我们认为其不会突然地对企业整体损益产生如此深远的影响，因此我们仍持谨慎态度，预计经济增长将放缓，股市将调整，投资者将找到更好的切入点。”尽管看空美股的不止Kolanovic，但最近一群看空股市的策略师改变了论调。周一，Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel将标普500指数的目标位从先前的4750点上调至6000点，涨幅为26%。上个月，长期看跌股市的摩根士丹利首席投资官Mike Wilson转为看多，并将标普500指数的目标位从之前的4500点上调至5400点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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