全球“抱团”美股，美股“抱团”AI

华尔街见闻06-16

过去一个月内，全球约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产；一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。尽管美国面临债务问题和大选带来的政治分歧，但在欧洲选举压力、日央行再度推迟公布缩表细节致使日元汇率风险不减的双重夹击下，全球投资者纷纷“抱团”美国股债。本周，标普500指数的涨幅创下过去15个月最高周涨幅。同时，美国长期国债收益率也上升至3.5%，...

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Affiliates的股票策略首席投资官Que Nguyen则认为，在最大科技公司所占权重极高的背景下，追逐美国股票的收益也存在风险：“我们已经进入了一个大公司变得更大的时代，目前尚不清楚这种情况是否能维持下去......美国大公司主导地位将面临挑战，面临来自较小公司或海外竞争对手的潜在威胁。”全球投资者“抱团”美国股债尽管美联储暗示将放缓加息步伐、 激烈的美国大选带来诸多不确定性，但全球投资者仍纷纷涌入美国市场。道明证券 (TD Securities) 整理的EPFR Global数据显示，过去一个月内，约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产，尤其是科技股领域，且衡量投资者对美国股票偏好的指标徘徊在三年高位。国际投资者对于美国信贷市场同样兴趣高涨。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示，2024年第一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。在除美国以外的全球市场，MSCI全球指数（不包括美国）下跌超过2%。日本央行对债券购买计划缺乏详细说明，给日元带来了压力；欧洲的情况更加糟糕，在法国马克龙决定提前举行选举后，法国股市出现了两年多来的最大跌幅，抹去了2024年的所有涨幅。投资公司Berenberg资产策略主管Ulrich Urbahn表示：“美国拥有最大、最具创新性的公司，盈利增长强劲，同时也受益于该国目前的‘避险地位’......势头会催生势头。FOMO（错失恐惧症）显然也是一个原因。”美股“抱团”AI，市场“头重脚轻”来到美股市场，AI/科技相关公司则成为资金抱团的“首要目标”。根据EPFR Global 和美国银行汇编的数据，本周美股科技板块流入资金达21 亿美元，为3月份以来的最高水平。数据显示，在美国长期股票型共同基金中，今年唯一一个行业敞口增加的领域便是科技。根据巴克莱银行策略师Venu Krishna等人编制的数据，银行、医疗保健和非必需消费品公司在这些投资组合中的低配比例不断增加。与此同时，在Mag 7概念逐渐被人忘却，所占的权重极高的苹果、微软、英伟达三家“3万亿巨头”搭台唱戏的背景下，美股市场的“集中度风险”似乎也在不断提升，市场分化现象越来越明显。金融博客Zerohedge评论称：“现在似乎重要的只有前三大科技公司——苹果、微软和英伟达——它们的市值几乎相同，都约为3.2万亿美元...... 实际上，现在再也没有什么比这三家公司更重要的了 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