中银国际：利基存储企稳回升在望 AI驱动高端需求加速放量

智通财经06-04

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，步入2024年，DRAM及NAND价格涨势延续，利基型存储拐点或已现，在大宗品涨价氛围带动，同时受惠业者减产效益全面发酵，渠道商库存水位明显下降背景下，NOR Flash等利基存储亦开始酝酿涨价。展望全年，伴随存储原厂复苏态势及以AI手机、AIPC等为代表的终端创新推出，存储板块“周期+成长”双重逻辑有望持续共振，同时大基金三期或进一步发力国产存储，行业或...

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Flash等利基存储亦开始酝酿涨价。展望全年，伴随存储原厂复苏态势及以AI手机、AIPC等为代表的终端创新推出，存储板块“周期+成长”双重逻辑有望持续共振，同时大基金三期或进一步发力国产存储，行业或迎来板块性机会。中银国际主要观点如下：存储板块2023年报及2024一季报综述2023年存储设计业绩承压，但季度环比已现修复态势，模组收入同比高增，但利润低迷。24Q1存储设计及模组都趋于复苏。从收入端来看，存储IC设计板块2023年全年实现营业收入40.47亿元，同比下降0.09%。存储模组板块实现营收58.68亿元，同比增长75.15%。从利润端来看，存储IC设计板块2023年全年实现归母净利润7.23亿元，同比下降84.90%。存储模组板块实现归母净利润-14.71亿，同比大幅下滑。相较收入端的下滑，利润端下滑更加明显。中银国际表示，步入2024年，24Q1存储设计与模组板块均呈现收入与利润的同环比修复，呈现出景气好转趋势。特别是存储模组厂受益大宗价格起涨，业绩弹性释放明显。利基市场有望伴随大宗起涨，终端需求呈弱复苏态势价格方面，DRAM及NAND价格涨势延续，利基型存储拐点或已现，在大宗品涨价氛围带动，同时受惠业者减产效益全面发酵，渠道商库存水位明显下降背景下，NOR Flash等利基存储亦开始酝酿涨价。库存方面，原厂库存水位渐趋于好转。供给方面，美光，三星资本开支低位运转，海力士加码投入HBM，到今年底，原厂约80% DRAM产能切换至DDR5，随着低世代DRAM现货低价资源消耗殆尽，原厂库存水位下降，DDR4供应或将陷入短缺。需求方面，智能终端弱复苏态势建立，传统消费电子增长涌现。NOR Flash在智能家电领域应用前景广阔，伴随家电回暖NOR或再迎新增长。AI需求高景气持续，数据中心复苏在望24年HBM3E将趋向主流，HBM4正加速赶来，受益AI需求的发展，三大存储原厂动态不断，SK海力士、三星、美光均表示近两年HBM产能已售罄。随着HBM3E和HBM4的持续推进，带动行业生态发生变革。受全球主要云计算厂商新一轮资本开支增长以及对于高端AI服务器需求增加的影响，数据中心有望迎来修复性增长，配套内存接口芯片或迎来复苏增长机会。建议关注标的：利基存储：兆易创新(603986.SH)、普冉股份(688766.SH)、东芯股份(688110.SH)等。内存接口芯片：澜起科技(688008.SH)、聚辰股份(688123.SH)。HBM产业链：通富微电(002156.SZ)、赛腾股份(603283.SH)、华海诚科(688535.SH)、联瑞新材(688300.SH)等。国产存储原厂配套设备、材料：北方华创(002371.SZ)、中微公司(688012.SH)、拓荆科技(688072.SH)、雅克科技(002409.SZ)等。风险因素：利基型存储复苏不及预期、终端创新应用渗透率提升不及预期、HBM/DDR5竞争加剧、国产存储产业链配套验证不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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